Mac Jones passing touchdowns props present a sharp under opportunity with just 26.7% overs across 15 games. His 0.93 touchdown average falls significantly short of the typical 1.37 line, creating a -0.4 differential that has generated 40% ROI on unders. This trend shows strong persistence with multiple extended under streaks.
Expert Analysis
The Mac Jones passing touchdown under has been one of the most reliable props in recent NFL betting, and the underlying factors suggest this edge remains intact. Jones's 0.93 touchdown average reflects fundamental limitations in both his skill set and offensive context that books consistently undervalue. His conservative playing style, combined with Jacksonville's inconsistent red zone efficiency, creates a systematic gap between market expectations and reality. The 40% ROI on unders isn't just variance - it's the market pricing Jones as a more explosive passer than his methodical approach warrants. Most telling is the streak data showing extended under runs, including a five-game stretch, indicating this isn't random but reflects consistent offensive limitations. The lack of meaningful over streaks (longest just one game) further confirms the directional bias. While regression is always possible, Jones's fundamental profile as a game manager rather than a touchdown producer suggests books will continue overestimating his scoring potential. The key risk lies in potential offensive coordinator changes or increased red zone targets, but his current role and skill set make dramatic touchdown production increases unlikely. This represents a structural edge where the market consistently overrates touchdown upside for a quarterback whose strengths lie elsewhere.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 73.3% under rate combined with 40% ROI creates a compelling systematic edge that reflects Mac Jones's fundamental limitations as a touchdown producer. The ideal spot is when lines sit at 1.5 touchdowns, maximizing the gap between his 0.93 average and market expectations. Main risk is potential offensive scheme changes, but his current role as a conservative game manager makes dramatic scoring increases unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Mac Jones's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Mac Jones has gone under his passing touchdowns prop in 11 of 15 games (73.3%), posting a 4-11-0 over/under record. This represents just 26.7% overs with an average of 0.93 touchdowns per game, significantly below typical market lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Mac Jones Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Mac Jones passing touchdowns props. The 73.3% under rate and 40% ROI on unders create a high-confidence edge. His conservative style and 0.93 average consistently fall short of market expectations around 1.37 touchdowns.
What's Mac Jones's average Passing TDs all games?
Mac Jones averages 0.93 passing touchdowns per game, creating a significant -0.4 differential versus the typical 1.37 line. This gap between his actual production and market expectations drives the strong under performance and 40% ROI edge.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mac Jones touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5, maximizing the gap versus his 0.93 average. Avoid during potential revenge games or against weak pass defenses where variance could temporarily spike his scoring output above normal levels.