Logan Thomas shows marginal over value with an 8-7-0 record (53.3% overs) and averages 32.47 receiving yards against a 29.7 line. The modest +2.8 differential and minimal +1.8% over ROI suggest a lean over approach rather than strong conviction betting.
Expert Analysis
Logan Thomas's receiving yards trend reveals a tight-margin proposition that requires careful evaluation. The 53.3% over rate across 15 games suggests books are pricing his lines slightly conservatively, creating small but consistent value on overs. His 32.47 average against the 29.7 line represents a meaningful 2.8-yard edge that compounds over multiple bets. However, the modest +1.8% over ROI indicates this isn't a goldmine play. The concerning -10.9% under ROI suggests significant juice working against under bettors, making overs the mathematically superior side. Thomas's role as a veteran tight end in San Francisco's system likely provides consistent target opportunities, though his ceiling remains limited by the position's inherent volatility. The current one-game under streak following longer over and under streaks of 2-3 games indicates natural variance rather than systematic shifts. Without split data revealing optimal conditions, bettors must rely on the overall positive differential while acknowledging the narrow margins involved.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 2.8-yard positive differential and 53.3% over rate provide legitimate mathematical edge, while the -10.9% under ROI confirms overs as the superior side. Thomas's consistent role generates steady target volume, making overs the preferred approach despite modest returns requiring proper bankroll management.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 26.5 | 20.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 25.5 | 36.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 30.5 | 7.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 35.5 | 0.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 38.5 | 15.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 33.5 | 58.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 33.5 | 40.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 33.5 | 31.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 31.5 | 44.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 27.5 | 51.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 37.5 | 2.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-05 | OPP | 27.5 | 77.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 21.5 | 41.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 24.5 | 22.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 18.5 | 43.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Logan Thomas's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Logan Thomas has gone over his receiving yards prop 8 times in 15 games (53.3% rate) with 7 unders and no pushes. His average of 32.47 yards exceeds the typical 29.7 line by 2.8 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Logan Thomas Receiving Yards all games?
Bet over on Logan Thomas receiving yards. The 2.8-yard positive differential and +1.8% over ROI provide mathematical edge, while the -10.9% under ROI makes unders a losing proposition long-term.
What's Logan Thomas's average Receiving Yards all games?
Logan Thomas averages 32.47 receiving yards across all games, which is 2.8 yards above his typical line of 29.7. This consistent positive differential creates value for over bettors throughout the season.
How reliable is this trend?
Logan Thomas receiving yards overs show consistent value across all game situations. Without specific split data, focus on his overall positive differential and target volume rather than situational factors.