Lamar Jackson has delivered exceptional rushing value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% rate while averaging 53.0 yards against a 46.6 line. The +6.4 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on overs signals a legitimate edge that books haven't fully adjusted to.
Expert Analysis
Jackson's rushing prop represents one of the clearest edges in the quarterback market, driven by Baltimore's evolved offensive philosophy that maximizes his dual-threat ability. The 53.0 yard average against a 46.6 line reveals consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers who appear anchored to his career norms rather than current usage patterns. This 6.4 yard cushion isn't marginal—it represents nearly 14% value above the implied total. The Ravens' commitment to designed quarterback runs has intensified, particularly in crucial situations where Jackson's mobility creates explosive plays that traditional pocket passers cannot generate. His rushing floor remains elevated even in negative game scripts, as Baltimore uses his legs to extend drives and control tempo. The 60% over rate across 10 games suggests sustainable edge rather than variance, especially considering Jackson's durability and the Ravens' playoff positioning requiring consistent offensive production. The recent under streak of just one game indicates normal variance rather than systematic change, particularly given the small sample size. Most importantly, the betting market continues to price Jackson's rushing props based on historical averages that don't reflect his current role expansion, creating persistent value for astute bettors who recognize this systematic undervaluation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Jackson's 6.4 yard average differential above the line represents genuine market inefficiency that persists across different game situations. The 60% over rate and positive ROI indicate sustainable edge, though the limited sample size prevents high confidence. Target overs when lines remain below 50 yards, as books haven't fully adjusted to his expanded rushing role in Baltimore's current offensive system.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 54.5 | 39.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 49.5 | 81.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 43.5 | 63.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 45.5 | 87.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 47.5 | 22.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 44.5 | 65.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 43.5 | 79.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 44.5 | 15.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 42.5 | 46.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 50.5 | 33.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Lamar Jackson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lamar Jackson's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jackson has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% over rate. He's averaged 53.0 rushing yards against typical lines around 46.6 yards, creating consistent value for over bettors with a +14.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Jackson's rushing yards props. His 6.4 yard average differential above the line and 60% over rate indicate the market consistently undervalues his current rushing usage in Baltimore's evolved offensive system that maximizes his dual-threat ability.
What's Lamar Jackson's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Jackson has averaged 53.0 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 46.6 yards. This +6.4 yard differential represents nearly 14% value above market expectations and suggests systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jackson rushing overs when lines stay below 50 yards, particularly in primetime games where Baltimore tends to showcase his dual-threat ability. Avoid when facing elite run defenses or in potential blowout scenarios where game script limits designed runs.