Lamar Jackson's rushing yards props show a slight edge toward the over with a 48.5% over rate across 33 games. His 53.52-yard average beats the typical 48.8-yard line by 4.7 yards, though the -7.4% ROI on overs suggests market efficiency. Lean under given the negative over ROI despite favorable averages.
Expert Analysis
The Lamar Jackson rushing yards market presents a fascinating contradiction that reveals sophisticated line-setting by oddsmakers. While Jackson averages 53.52 rushing yards against a typical 48.8-yard line—a healthy 4.7-yard cushion—the 16-17 over record and brutal -7.4% ROI on overs tells a different story. This suggests books are effectively pricing in Jackson's rushing ceiling, likely accounting for game script variations where Baltimore builds early leads and shifts to a more conservative, pass-heavy approach. The quarterback's dual-threat ability creates unique line-setting challenges, as his rushing floor remains high due to designed runs and scrambles, but his ceiling gets capped when the Ravens control games. The relatively balanced 16-17 record indicates this isn't a systematic market inefficiency but rather reflects the inherent volatility in quarterback rushing props. Jackson's rushing production correlates heavily with game competitiveness—blowout wins often see reduced rushing attempts as Baltimore protects their franchise quarterback, while competitive games unlock his full rushing potential. The current streak of one under suggests recent game scripts have favored Baltimore, limiting Jackson's rushing opportunities as they've leaned more heavily on their passing attack and running backs in favorable game situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The negative -7.4% ROI on overs despite Jackson averaging 4.7 yards above the typical line indicates sharp money consistently hammers the under, suggesting informed bettors recognize something the surface numbers don't reveal. Target unders when Baltimore is favored by more than a touchdown, as comfortable leads historically reduce Jackson's designed rushing attempts. Main risk is competitive divisional games where Jackson's legs become essential to offensive success.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 54.5 | 39.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 49.5 | 81.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 43.5 | 63.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 45.5 | 87.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 47.5 | 22.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 44.5 | 65.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 43.5 | 79.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 44.5 | 15.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 42.5 | 46.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 50.5 | 33.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 46.5 | 4.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 52.5 | 46.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 51.5 | 52.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 54.5 | 40.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 58.5 | 55.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Lamar Jackson props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Lamar Jackson's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Lamar Jackson has gone over his rushing yards prop 16 times and under 17 times across 33 games, producing a 48.5% over rate. This near-even split demonstrates the market's efficiency in pricing his dual-threat capabilities accurately.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Lamar Jackson Rushing Yards all games?
Lean under on Lamar Jackson's rushing yards props. Despite his 53.52-yard average beating the 48.8-yard line, overs show a -7.4% ROI while unders are nearly break-even at -1.6%, suggesting sharper money favors the under consistently.
What's Lamar Jackson's average Rushing Yards all games?
Lamar Jackson averages 53.52 rushing yards per game, which is 4.7 yards above the typical 48.8-yard line. However, this positive differential hasn't translated to profitable over bets, indicating the market effectively prices in his rushing variance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Lamar Jackson rushing yards unders when Baltimore is heavily favored, as comfortable leads reduce his designed rushing attempts. Avoid betting during primetime divisional games where competitive scripts typically maximize his dual-threat usage and rushing opportunities.