Kyren Williams has delivered exceptional rushing yard value in conference games, hitting the over in 60.0% of his 20 tracked games with a robust +14.7 yard average differential above his lines. The 14.6% ROI on overs signals consistent market mispricing, making this a strong lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
The Rams' ground game transforms in conference play, with Williams averaging 88.55 rushing yards against lines set at just 73.85 yards. This 14.7-yard cushion isn't random variance—it reflects how Los Angeles approaches divisional and conference matchups with increased rushing volume to control clock and field position. Williams benefits from the Rams' tendency to lean heavier on the ground game when facing familiar opponents who have extensive film on their passing attack. The 60.0% over rate across 20 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Williams' elevated conference performance. His ability to exceed expectations stems from increased carries in these competitive, often lower-scoring affairs where Sean McVay relies more heavily on ball control. The recent streak patterns show volatility exists, but the underlying trend remains strong. The key concern is whether this edge has narrowed as Williams' sample size grows and books potentially adjust, but the current data suggests the market still undervalues his conference game rushing production.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 14.7-yard average differential and 60.0% over rate in conference games reveals a persistent market inefficiency that remains profitable. The ideal conditions involve games where the Rams need to control tempo against familiar opponents. The primary risk is potential line adjustments as this trend gains recognition, but current pricing still offers value for disciplined over bettors.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 74.5 | 106.0 | +31.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 85.5 | 76.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 92.5 | 56.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 73.5 | 108.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 80.5 | 104.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 72.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 93.5 | 69.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 73.5 | 97.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 81.5 | 102.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 78.5 | 94.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 63.5 | 89.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 75.5 | 25.0 | -50.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 59.5 | 50.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 82.5 | 61.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 89.5 | 104.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Kyren Williams has gone over his rushing yards prop in 12 of 20 conference games (60.0% rate) while staying under in 8 games. This 12-8-0 record demonstrates consistent value on the over side with no pushes recorded.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet the over on Williams' rushing yards in conference games. His 14.7-yard average differential above the line and 60.0% hit rate provide clear value, though use proper bankroll management given the medium confidence level.
What's Kyren Williams's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Williams averages 88.55 rushing yards in conference games compared to typical lines of 73.85 yards. This +14.7 yard differential represents substantial value, indicating the market consistently underprices his conference game production by nearly two touchdowns worth of yardage.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams rushing yard overs in conference games when the Rams face division rivals or need to control game tempo. Avoid when Los Angeles is heavily favored and likely to abandon the run early for passing volume.