Kyren Williams shows a modest edge toward overs in home receptions props, hitting 53.8% with a 7-6 record across 13 games. The 2.85 average versus 2.73 line creates a small but consistent +0.1 differential. Lean OVER with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
The Rams' offensive identity at home creates subtle advantages for Williams in the passing game that the market consistently undervalues. His 2.85 home reception average beating the typical 2.73 line reflects Los Angeles utilizing him more frequently as a safety valve in their own building, where crowd noise and familiarity allow for more complex route combinations. The +2.8% ROI on overs versus -11.9% on unders demonstrates sustainable profit potential, though the narrow 0.1 differential suggests oddsmakers are aware of this trend. Williams benefits from the Rams' tendency to script early touches for their primary back at home, often including designed screens and checkdowns that boost reception totals even in games where rushing volume remains limited. The three-game over streak indicates recent form aligning with the broader pattern, though regression risk exists given the modest sample size. Most concerning is the lack of dominant conditions—this trend relies on accumulated marginal advantages rather than exploitable mismatches, making it vulnerable to offensive coordinator changes or evolving game scripts that could shift Williams' role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent 0.1 differential and positive ROI on overs create a sustainable edge, particularly when Williams' home reception props sit at 2.5 or lower. Target games where the Rams face competitive opponents likely to keep the game close, forcing continued passing involvement throughout. Main risk is the narrow margin for error—one scripted change could eliminate this modest advantage entirely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Kyren Williams props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receptions prop record home games?
Williams has gone over his receptions prop in 7 of 13 home games (53.8% rate) with a 7-6 overall record. His home average of 2.85 receptions consistently beats the typical 2.73 line by 0.1 catches per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receptions home games?
Lean over on Williams' home reception props, especially at 2.5 or lower lines. The +2.8% ROI on overs and consistent 0.1 differential create sustainable value, though bet sizing should remain modest given the narrow edge.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receptions home games?
Williams averages 2.85 receptions in home games compared to the typical 2.73 line, creating a positive 0.1 differential. This consistent gap has produced a 53.8% over rate across 13 games dating back to September 2023.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception overs when props are set at 2.5 or lower in competitive home games. Avoid blowout spots where the Rams might abandon passing early, and focus on divisional matchups where game scripts favor sustained offensive involvement.