Kyren Williams presents a compelling under opportunity in receiving yards props, hitting just 41.4% of overs across 29 games with a -2.4 yard differential versus the typical 16.02 line. The Rams running back's role as a ground-first option creates consistent value on unders with +11.9% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Williams' receiving yards struggles stem from the Rams' offensive philosophy that prioritizes his rushing ability over pass-catching duties. His 13.66 average against a 16.02 line reflects a fundamental mismatch between sportsbook expectations and actual usage patterns. The -21.0% ROI on overs tells a clear story of inflated lines that consistently overestimate his aerial contributions. This isn't a temporary slump but rather structural limitations in his role within Sean McVay's system. Williams operates primarily as a between-the-tackles runner, with receiving work coming mostly on checkdowns and screens rather than designed passing plays. The 58.6% under rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his limited pass-catching profile. His longest under streak of six games indicates the trend can persist even when the market recognizes it. The current one-game under streak positions favorably for continuation, especially considering Williams' role hasn't evolved significantly to warrant higher receiving expectations. Market inefficiency appears driven by his overall offensive production masking specifically weak receiving numbers.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 58.6% under rate and +11.9% under ROI create sustainable value against consistently inflated lines. The -2.4 yard differential shows meaningful market mispricing of his limited receiving role. Target unders when lines exceed 15 yards, particularly in games where the Rams project to control pace and lean on his rushing ability. Main risk involves potential offensive evolution or increased checkdown usage in negative game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 12.5 | -1.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 9.5 | 16.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 9.5 | 7.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-12 | OPP | 10.5 | 4.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 10.5 | 10.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 11.5 | 9.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-11 | OPP | 14.5 | 20.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 26.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 19.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 15.5 | 0.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 18.5 | 3.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 16.5 | 10.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyren Williams's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Williams holds a 12-17 record on receiving yards overs across 29 games, hitting just 41.4% of his over bets. This translates to a 58.6% under rate with consistent value for under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyren Williams Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Williams' receiving yards props. His 58.6% under rate and +11.9% under ROI create reliable value against consistently inflated lines that overestimate his pass-catching role in the Rams offense.
What's Kyren Williams's average Receiving Yards all games?
Williams averages 13.66 receiving yards per game against typical lines of 16.02 yards, creating a -2.4 yard differential. This gap represents meaningful market mispricing of his limited receiving contributions.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receiving yards unders when lines exceed 15 yards, particularly in games where the Rams project to control tempo and emphasize his primary rushing role over pass-catching duties.