Kyler Murray's rushing yards have been a disaster for over bettors, hitting just 30.0% of the time across his last 10 games while averaging 24.7 yards against a 29.5 line. This 4.8-yard deficit represents a significant edge, with under bets delivering +33.6% ROI. The data strongly favors the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a quarterback whose rushing production has fundamentally shifted. Murray's 24.7-yard average against a 29.5 line isn't just missing by a yard or two—it's a systematic underperformance that suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current reality. The 30.0% over rate is particularly damning when you consider that rushing yards props typically see more balanced outcomes than passing stats. What makes this trend especially compelling is the consistency of the underperformance. Murray isn't alternating between explosive rushing games and duds; he's settling into a pattern of limited ground production that likely reflects both scheme changes and perhaps a more conservative approach to scrambling. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of bettors consistently overestimating his rushing ceiling, while the +33.6% return on unders represents genuine value. The current streak of one under doesn't diminish the broader pattern, especially given the longest under streak reached four games. This isn't regression waiting to happen—it's a new baseline that the market hasn't fully recognized.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Murray's 4.8-yard deficit against the line represents a clear market inefficiency that shows no signs of correcting. The 30.0% over rate combined with +33.6% ROI on unders creates a compelling case for continued under betting. Target games where Arizona faces strong defenses or weather conditions that limit mobility. The main risk is a single explosive scrambling performance skewing short-term results, but the underlying trend remains rock solid.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 22.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 26.5 | 32.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 63.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 25.5 | 11.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 16.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 24.5 | 48.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 29.5 | 9.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 21.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 34.5 | 6.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 34.5 | 19.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyler Murray's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Murray has gone 3-7-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of the time. Under bettors have profited with a +33.6% ROI while over backers lost -42.7%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyler Murray Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Murray's averaging 4.8 yards below the typical 29.5 line, creating consistent value for under bettors who've already banked +33.6% ROI over this stretch.
What's Kyler Murray's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Murray's averaged 24.7 rushing yards over his last 10 games against a typical line of 29.5 yards. This 4.8-yard deficit represents a significant gap that under bettors have successfully exploited.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when Arizona faces elite defenses or poor weather conditions that limit scrambling opportunities. The trend is strong enough to bet in most spots, but these conditions amplify the edge.