Kyler Murray's rushing yards props show minimal edge with a 52.0% over rate across 25 games, averaging 32.64 yards against a 30.54 line. The slight positive differential masks poor under returns (-8.4% ROI) while overs break even. This is a marginal LEAN OVER situation requiring selective timing.
Expert Analysis
Murray's rushing production reveals a quarterback whose mobility remains intact despite past injuries, consistently exceeding modest market expectations by 2.1 yards per game. The 52.0% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his dual-threat capability, particularly given his average of 32.64 yards surpasses typical pocket passer baselines. However, the near break-even ROI on overs (-0.7%) indicates this edge is razor-thin and easily eroded by juice. The concerning -8.4% under ROI suggests recreational money consistently inflates these lines beyond their true value. Murray's rushing floor appears stable around 30+ yards, supported by designed runs and scramble opportunities that Arizona's offense incorporates regardless of game script. The alternating streak pattern (longest runs of 4 games each direction) indicates situational variance rather than systematic bias. Without clear split advantages, this trend relies purely on Murray's athletic profile exceeding conservative market pricing. The sustainability depends on Arizona maintaining their current offensive philosophy and Murray staying healthy enough to utilize his legs effectively throughout games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Murray's consistent 2.1-yard edge over market lines reflects books undervaluing his rushing floor, though the minimal ROI demands selective betting. Target overs when lines sit at 29 or below, where his 32.64 average provides better cushion. The primary risk is Arizona shifting toward a more pocket-oriented approach or Murray's mobility declining, making this edge vulnerable to quick evaporation.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 40.5 | 22.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 26.5 | 32.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 24.5 | 63.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 25.5 | 11.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 25.5 | 16.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 24.5 | 48.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 29.5 | 9.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 29.5 | 21.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 34.5 | 6.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 34.5 | 19.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 33.5 | 64.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 32.5 | 14.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 30.5 | 83.0 | +52.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 35.5 | 3.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 34.5 | 45.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Kyler Murray props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyler Murray's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Murray's rushing yards props show a 13-12 over/under record (52.0% overs) across 25 games from November 2023 to January 2025. He's averaged 32.64 yards against a 30.54 average line, creating a positive 2.1-yard differential per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyler Murray Rushing Yards all games?
Lean toward betting overs on Murray's rushing yards, but only selectively. His 32.64 average consistently beats the 30.54 line, though the -0.7% over ROI shows minimal edge. Target lines at 29 or below for better value and avoid betting every game.
What's Kyler Murray's average Rushing Yards all games?
Murray averages 32.64 rushing yards across all games, which beats the typical market line of 30.54 by 2.1 yards. This positive differential indicates books consistently undervalue his rushing floor, though the edge is relatively small and requires careful line shopping.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray rushing overs when lines are set at 29 yards or below, maximizing the cushion from his 32.64 average. Avoid betting during obvious passing game scripts or when he's dealing with mobility-limiting injuries that could reduce scrambling opportunities.