Kyler Murray's passing touchdown props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 29.2% of overs across 24 games with a brutal -0.2 touchdown differential versus the line. The Cardinals quarterback averages only 1.25 passing touchdowns per game against a 1.46 line, creating consistent value on the under with +35.2% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Murray's touchdown underperformance stems from Arizona's offensive limitations and his own inconsistent red zone execution. The Cardinals have struggled with red zone efficiency throughout this sample, often settling for field goals when Murray's mobility creates opportunities but doesn't translate to passing scores. His 1.25 touchdown average reveals a quarterback who moves the ball effectively between the twenties but lacks the reliable red zone targets that elite passers depend on. The -0.2 differential suggests oddsmakers consistently overvalue Murray's touchdown upside, likely influenced by his dual-threat reputation rather than his actual passing touchdown production. Arizona's offensive line struggles have also forced Murray into more scrambling situations, reducing his pocket presence in crucial scoring areas. The 7-17 over-under record isn't just bad luck—it reflects systemic issues with the Cardinals' red zone offense and Murray's tendency to take off running rather than trust his receivers in tight coverage. With no significant split variations showing dramatically different patterns, this appears to be a consistent market inefficiency rather than situation-dependent variance.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 29.2% over rate and +35.2% under ROI create clear value, but Murray's talent prevents this from being a max bet situation. Target games where Arizona faces strong red zone defenses or when the total suggests a lower-scoring affair. The main risk is Murray breaking out of his touchdown funk with a multi-score performance, but the data strongly supports continued under betting until the market adjusts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kyler Murray's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Murray's passing touchdown props show a 7-17-0 over-under record across 24 games, hitting just 29.2% of overs. This represents one of the most consistent under trends among starting quarterbacks this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kyler Murray Passing TDs all games?
Bet the under on Murray's passing touchdowns. The 29.2% over rate and +35.2% under ROI create clear value, especially when Arizona faces strong defenses or in projected lower-scoring games.
What's Kyler Murray's average Passing TDs all games?
Murray averages 1.25 passing touchdowns per game compared to his typical 1.46 line, creating a -0.2 differential. This consistent underperformance versus expectations drives the strong under value in his props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Murray passing touchdown unders when Arizona faces top-10 red zone defenses or when game totals suggest lower scoring. Avoid when the Cardinals are significant home favorites against weak defenses.