Kirk Cousins has delivered crushing under value in his last 10 games, hitting under 1.5 passing touchdowns 70% of the time with a devastating -42.7% ROI for over bettors. Currently riding a five-game under streak while averaging just 1.4 touchdowns per game. The under trend demands serious attention.
Expert Analysis
Kirk Cousins's touchdown production has been alarmingly consistent in its mediocrity, creating one of the most reliable under trends in the NFL. Averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line represents more than just statistical variance—it reflects fundamental offensive limitations that have persisted across a meaningful 10-game sample. The Falcons' red zone efficiency appears compromised, likely due to a combination of conservative play-calling, limited receiving weapons, and Cousins's own risk-averse tendencies in high-leverage situations. The five-game under streak isn't a fluke; it's the continuation of a quarterback who consistently fails to reach the modest 1.5 touchdown threshold that oddsmakers set. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the consistency—Cousins isn't alternating between explosive games and duds, he's methodically staying under the number. The -0.1 differential between his average and the line might seem small, but in touchdown props where whole numbers matter enormously, this gap represents significant edge. The 30% over rate combined with the brutal -42.7% ROI for over bettors tells the story of a market that hasn't fully adjusted to Cousins's limitations in Atlanta's offensive system.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and five-game streak create compelling value, especially with Cousins averaging exactly 0.1 touchdowns below the typical line. The trend shows remarkable consistency rather than volatile swings, suggesting systemic offensive issues rather than temporary slumps. Primary risk is positive regression—five straight unders can't last forever, and one explosive game could quickly shift momentum.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kirk Cousins's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Cousins has gone 3-7 over/under on his passing touchdowns props in his last 10 games, hitting the under 70% of the time. He's currently on a five-game under streak, the longest of this sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kirk Cousins Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean under on Cousins's passing touchdowns props. The 70% under rate and -42.7% ROI for over bettors create clear value, especially during his current five-game under streak with consistent 1.4 touchdown average.
What's Kirk Cousins's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Cousins averages 1.4 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests, sitting 0.1 touchdowns below the typical 1.5 line. This small but consistent gap has created significant under value for sharp bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Cousins touchdown unders when facing competent defenses or in potential low-scoring games. His conservative approach and Atlanta's offensive limitations make the under most valuable when game script doesn't force aggressive passing.