Khalil Shakir has hit the under in 6 of his last 10 games (40% over rate), averaging 52.4 receiving yards against lines averaging 55.2. The -2.8 yard differential and -23.6% ROI on overs signal consistent market overvaluation. This points to a lean under on future props.
Expert Analysis
The market continues to overestimate Khalil Shakir's receiving production, creating a systematic edge for under bettors. His 52.4-yard average falls consistently short of the 55.2-yard lines he's faced, suggesting oddsmakers haven't properly adjusted for his role limitations within Buffalo's offense. The Bills' run-heavy approach in favorable game scripts and Josh Allen's rushing ability naturally cap Shakir's ceiling, particularly when Buffalo controls games. His 40% over rate reflects the reality of being a complementary receiver rather than a primary target, despite the market pricing him closer to a featured role. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has recognized this inefficiency, while the +14.6% under ROI confirms the edge's profitability. With Buffalo's playoff positioning secure, expect continued game script variance that favors rushing attacks over sustained passing volume. Shakir's inconsistent target share—ranging from secondary option to afterthought depending on game flow—makes his props particularly vulnerable to the under when the Bills establish early leads or face weather conditions that limit aerial attacks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The market consistently overvalues Shakir's role, creating a -2.8 yard edge that translates to profitable under betting. Target props when Buffalo is favored by more than a field goal, as positive game scripts reduce passing volume. Primary risk is garbage time production in blowout losses, but the Bills' strong defense limits such scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 59.5 | 46.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 50.5 | 67.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 52.5 | 61.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 46.5 | 25.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 54.5 | 22.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 58.5 | 39.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 54.5 | 106.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 54.5 | 30.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 58.5 | 70.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 62.5 | 58.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Khalil Shakir props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Khalil Shakir's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Khalil Shakir went under his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 40% over rate. He averaged 52.4 yards against lines averaging 55.2, creating a consistent 2.8-yard shortfall for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Khalil Shakir Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Khalil Shakir receiving yards props. The consistent -2.8 yard differential and +14.6% ROI on unders shows clear market overvaluation. Target spots when Buffalo is favored, as positive game scripts reduce his volume.
What's Khalil Shakir's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Khalil Shakir averaged 52.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to average prop lines of 55.2 yards. This -2.8 yard differential represents consistent underperformance relative to market expectations and betting lines.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Shakir receiving yards unders when Buffalo is favored by 4+ points or facing weather conditions. These scenarios promote run-heavy game scripts that limit his target share and reduce overall passing volume significantly.