Khalil Herbert's rushing yards props present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 33.3% overs across 15 games with a devastating -36.4% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 41.8 yards against a 34.9 line, the consistent under performance and current four-game under streak signal clear value on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Herbert's rushing yards props reveal a classic case of inflated market expectations meeting inconsistent usage reality. The 33.3% over rate across 15 games suggests books are consistently overvaluing his rushing floor, likely influenced by his physical tools rather than his actual role within Cincinnati's offense. The -36.4% ROI on overs is particularly damaging, indicating that even when Herbert exceeds his line, the margin is often narrow. His current four-game under streak represents his longest cold stretch, but rather than signaling regression, it reinforces the fundamental issue: Herbert operates in a crowded backfield where touches are unpredictable. The 6.9-yard positive differential between his average and typical lines creates a false sense of value on overs, but this number is likely skewed by a few explosive performances rather than consistent production. Cincinnati's offensive philosophy and Herbert's role as a complementary back rather than a featured runner creates an environment where books struggle to properly price his floor. The persistence of this trend across multiple seasons suggests structural rather than coincidental factors at play.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.3% over rate and brutal -36.4% ROI on overs create clear mathematical value on the under side, while the current four-game under streak suggests this trend remains intact. Target Herbert rushing under props when lines exceed 35 yards, as his complementary role limits consistent volume. Primary risk is a potential shift in offensive usage or injury to other backs that could increase his workload unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 9.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 12.5 | 3.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 27.5 | 4.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 60.5 | 28.0 | -32.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 26.5 | 124.0 | +97.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 38.5 | 112.0 | +73.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 12.5 | 8.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 8.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 53.5 | 24.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 32.5 | 35.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-05 | OPP | 48.5 | 76.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 41.5 | 103.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 34.5 | 31.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 45.5 | 35.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 50.5 | 27.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Khalil Herbert's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Herbert's rushing yards props show a 5-10-0 over/under record across 15 games, hitting overs just 33.3% of the time. This represents one of the more reliable under trends among running backs with significant sample sizes.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Khalil Herbert Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the under on Herbert's rushing yards props. The 33.3% over rate and -36.4% ROI on overs create clear mathematical value, while the +27.3% under ROI demonstrates consistent profitability for disciplined under betting.
What's Khalil Herbert's average Rushing Yards all games?
Herbert averages 41.8 rushing yards per game against a typical line of 34.9 yards, creating a +6.9 differential. However, this positive average is misleading given the poor over performance and suggests a few outlier games skew the data.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert rushing under props when lines exceed 35 yards, particularly during his current four-game under streak. Avoid betting when other Cincinnati backs are injured, as increased usage could shift the fundamental dynamics of this trend.