Keon Coleman has been a consistent under performer on reception props, hitting just 40% of overs across his last 10 games while averaging 2.1 receptions against 2.2 lines. The rookie receiver is currently riding a three-game under streak, generating +14.6% ROI for under bettors. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Coleman's reception struggles stem from Buffalo's run-heavy offensive identity and his role as a developmental rookie receiver. The Bills have leaned heavily on their ground game throughout 2024, limiting overall passing volume and creating fewer opportunities for secondary receivers like Coleman. His 2.1 reception average suggests he's consistently falling short of market expectations, which typically price in upside potential for young players. The three-game under streak indicates recent form aligns with the broader trend, suggesting this isn't just early-season variance but a persistent pattern. Coleman's route running is still developing at the NFL level, and Buffalo's offensive system prioritizes established targets like Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox in high-leverage situations. The -0.1 differential between his average and typical lines shows books are accurately pricing his floor, but bettors continue to overvalue his ceiling. Most concerning for over backers is the consistency of the underperformance - Coleman isn't alternating between boom and bust games, he's simply not reaching his props with regularity. This pattern typically persists until a significant change in role, usage, or offensive philosophy occurs.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Coleman's 40% over rate and three-game under streak reflect a rookie receiver still finding his footing in Buffalo's run-first offense. The ideal betting spot is when lines remain at 2.5+ receptions, as his 2.1 average suggests consistent value on unders. Primary risk is a potential breakout game that could shift market perception and future pricing.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Coleman's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Coleman has gone 4-6 on reception overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% while averaging 2.1 receptions against typical lines of 2.2. He's currently on a three-game under streak.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Coleman Receptions last 10 games?
Lean under on Coleman's reception props. His 40% over rate and +14.6% under ROI show consistent value betting unders, especially with his current three-game streak supporting the trend.
What's Keon Coleman's average Receptions last 10 games?
Coleman averages 2.1 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.2, creating a -0.1 differential that consistently favors under bettors in this sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Coleman under bets when lines are 2.5+ receptions, particularly in games where Buffalo projects to run heavily or weather conditions favor ground-based attacks over passing volume.