Keon Coleman has hit the over on his receptions prop just 38.5% of the time this season, going 5-8 with an average of 2.0 catches against lines typically set around 2.42. The rookie's current three-game under streak reflects his inconsistent target share in Buffalo's balanced offensive attack. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Coleman's underwhelming 38.5% over rate stems from Buffalo's deep receiving corps and Josh Allen's tendency to spread targets around. The rookie averages 2.0 receptions per game, falling 0.4 catches short of his typical line, which creates immediate value on unders. His -26.6% ROI on overs versus +17.5% on unders tells the story clearly. Buffalo's offensive philosophy prioritizes efficiency over volume, and Coleman often serves as a complementary piece rather than a focal point. The Bills' willingness to utilize Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dalton Kincaid in key situations limits Coleman's ceiling. His three-game under streak isn't an anomaly but rather reflects his role as a developing player in a crowded target tree. The consistency of his underperformance suggests this isn't random variance but a structural issue with how the market prices his involvement. Coleman's 2.0 average indicates books are overestimating his weekly floor, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors who recognize his limited snap share and route diversity.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Coleman's 38.5% over rate and -0.4 average differential create clear value on reception unders. The rookie's role in Buffalo's offense remains limited, and his three-game under streak reflects realistic expectations rather than bad luck. Target Coleman under props when lines sit at 2.5 or higher, but avoid in potential shootout scenarios where Buffalo may need to throw more frequently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Keon Coleman props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Coleman's Receptions prop record all games?
Coleman has gone 5-8 on reception overs this season, hitting just 38.5% of his over bets across 13 games. He averages 2.0 receptions per game against lines typically set around 2.42, showing consistent underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Coleman Receptions all games?
Bet under on Coleman's receptions. His 38.5% over rate and +17.5% ROI on unders create clear value. The rookie's limited role in Buffalo's offense makes under bets the smart play, especially at lines of 2.5 or higher.
What's Keon Coleman's average Receptions all games?
Coleman averages 2.0 receptions per game this season, which falls 0.4 catches short of his typical line of 2.42. This negative differential of -0.4 consistently favors under bets and reflects his complementary role in Buffalo's offense.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Coleman reception unders when lines are set at 2.5 or higher, particularly in games where Buffalo has a comfortable lead expectation. Avoid under bets in potential shootouts where increased passing volume could boost his involvement significantly.