Keon Coleman has hit the over on his receiving yards prop in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0), but his 40.0-yard average runs 11.2 yards above typical lines. Despite the modest 50% over rate, the significant positive differential suggests consistent undervaluation. Lean over on favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
The 5-5-0 split tells only part of Coleman's story over his last 10 games. While the rookie receiver's 50% over rate appears neutral, his 40.0-yard average consistently outpacing the 28.8-yard line by 11.2 yards reveals systematic market undervaluation. This differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Coleman's expanded role in Buffalo's offense, particularly as the Bills have increasingly relied on his red zone presence and intermediate route running. The current three-game under streak represents natural variance rather than declining usage, as Coleman's target share has remained relatively stable. His production variance stems more from game script and defensive coverage than diminished opportunity. The rookie's physical profile and Josh Allen's trust in contested catch situations create a floor that betting lines haven't captured. However, the -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing despite the yardage differential. Coleman's prop value lies in identifying plus matchups against secondaries that struggle with bigger receivers, where his 40.0-yard average becomes more predictive than his 50% over rate suggests.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 11.2-yard positive differential between Coleman's 40.0-yard average and typical 28.8-yard lines indicates consistent market undervaluation despite the neutral 5-5-0 record. Target overs when Coleman faces secondaries vulnerable to intermediate routes or when Buffalo projects for higher passing volume. The main risk is his current three-game under streak continuing if the Bills lean heavily on their ground game.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 21.5 | 12.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 25.5 | 5.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 28.5 | 5.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 23.5 | 27.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 28.5 | 17.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 33.5 | 64.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 30.5 | 70.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 21.5 | 125.0 | +103.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 35.5 | 26.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 39.5 | 49.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Keon Coleman's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Keon Coleman has gone 5-5-0 on his receiving yards props over his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. His average of 40.0 yards significantly exceeds the typical 28.8-yard line, creating an 11.2-yard positive differential despite the neutral record.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Keon Coleman Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Keon Coleman's receiving yards props, particularly in favorable matchups. His 40.0-yard average runs 11.2 yards above typical lines, indicating market undervaluation. Target games where Buffalo projects for higher passing volume or faces secondaries vulnerable to intermediate routes.
What's Keon Coleman's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Keon Coleman averages 40.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which runs 11.2 yards above the typical 28.8-yard line. This substantial positive differential suggests consistent production that exceeds market expectations despite his neutral 5-5-0 over/under record.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Keon Coleman receiving yards overs against secondaries that struggle with bigger receivers or when Buffalo faces negative game scripts requiring more passing. Avoid during potential blowout wins where the Bills might lean heavily on their ground game late.