Kenny Pickett's rushing yards props present a massive under opportunity with just an 18.2% over rate (2-9-0) and a brutal -6.3 yard average differential. The Philadelphia Eagles quarterback averages only 4.27 rushing yards against lines typically set around 10.59, creating exceptional value on the under.
Expert Analysis
Kenny Pickett's rushing profile reveals a quarterback who simply doesn't scramble enough to justify the inflated lines bookmakers continue to set. His 4.27 yards per game average sits dramatically below the typical 10.59 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't adjusted to his pocket-passing tendencies. The 56.2% ROI on unders demonstrates market inefficiency that persists across his 11-game sample. Pickett's current five-game under streak and historical three-game streak indicate this isn't random variance but a fundamental mismatch between perception and reality. His transition to Philadelphia hasn't altered his mobility profile, as he remains a traditional pocket passer who rarely extends plays with his legs. The -65.3% ROI on overs shows how consistently punishing it is to bet on Pickett's rushing production. Unlike dual-threat quarterbacks who can explode for 20-30 rushing yards in any given game, Pickett's ceiling appears capped around single digits. The sample size provides confidence this trend reflects genuine skill limitations rather than temporary circumstances. Regression toward a higher rushing average seems unlikely given his established playing style and Philadelphia's pass-heavy offensive system that doesn't emphasize quarterback runs.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Kenny Pickett's rushing yards props offer elite value with an 18.2% over rate and massive -6.3 yard differential creating sustainable edges. His pocket-passing style and Philadelphia's offensive system provide structural reasons this trend continues. The primary risk is an unusually scramble-heavy game script, but his established profile makes this unlikely.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 9.5 | -1.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 13.5 | -6.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 14.5 | 4.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kenny Pickett's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Kenny Pickett's rushing yards prop record all games shows 2 overs and 9 unders across 11 games, translating to an 18.2% over rate. He's currently on a three-game under streak with his longest under streak reaching five games.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kenny Pickett Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the UNDER on Kenny Pickett's rushing yards props all games. The 18.2% over rate and -6.3 yard average differential create exceptional value. His pocket-passing style makes this a high-confidence under play with 56.2% ROI.
What's Kenny Pickett's average Rushing Yards all games?
Kenny Pickett averages 4.27 rushing yards all games compared to typical lines around 10.59 yards, creating a massive -6.3 yard differential. This gap demonstrates how significantly oddsmakers overvalue his rushing production compared to actual output.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Kenny Pickett's rushing yards unders when lines exceed 8-10 yards, especially in pass-heavy game scripts. His pocket-passing style and Philadelphia's offensive system create ideal conditions for under bets regardless of opponent or game situation.