Kenny Pickett's passing touchdown props present one of the season's most reliable under trends, hitting just 15.4% of overs across 13 games with a devastating -0.7 differential from the line. Currently riding an 8-game under streak, this represents a strong fade opportunity on touchdown props.
Expert Analysis
Kenny Pickett's passing touchdown struggles stem from fundamental quarterback limitations that persist regardless of team context. Averaging just 0.54 touchdowns per game against lines typically set around 1.19, Pickett demonstrates a consistent inability to find the end zone through the air. This isn't variance—it's systematic underperformance rooted in poor red zone decision-making, limited arm talent, and conservative offensive schemes that don't maximize scoring opportunities. The 8-game under streak reflects these underlying issues, not temporary bad luck. Pickett's touchdown production has been remarkably consistent in its mediocrity, suggesting books haven't fully adjusted their lines to reflect his actual ceiling. The -70.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has already identified this edge, while the corresponding +61.5% under ROI validates the strategy. His transition to Philadelphia hasn't altered these fundamental limitations, as touchdown passes require precision and timing that Pickett has consistently lacked. The trend's persistence across different offensive coordinators and supporting casts suggests this is player-specific rather than situational, making it highly likely to continue.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Pickett's 15.4% over rate and massive -0.7 line differential create compelling value on touchdown unders, particularly when lines exceed 1.0. The 8-game streak and consistent underperformance suggest books remain slow to adjust. Primary risk involves potential positive regression, but his fundamental limitations make dramatic improvement unlikely in the short term.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
Compare Kenny Pickett props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kenny Pickett's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Kenny Pickett has gone under his passing touchdowns prop in 11 of 13 games this season, posting just a 15.4% over rate. He's averaging 0.54 touchdowns per game while lines typically sit around 1.19, creating a massive -0.7 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kenny Pickett Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Kenny Pickett's passing touchdown props. His 15.4% over rate and 8-game under streak indicate books haven't adjusted lines properly. The -0.7 differential provides consistent value, especially when lines exceed 1.0 touchdowns.
What's Kenny Pickett's average Passing TDs all games?
Kenny Pickett averages 0.54 passing touchdowns per game, significantly below his typical line of 1.19. This -0.7 differential represents one of the largest gaps between actual production and market expectations among starting quarterbacks this season.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kenny Pickett touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.0 or higher, particularly in road games or against strong defenses. His red zone limitations become more pronounced under pressure, making these spots ideal for under bets.