Kendrick Bourne has delivered exceptional over value in receiving yards props, hitting the over in 58.8% of games (10-7-0) while averaging 33.24 yards against a 27.79 line. The +5.4 yard differential and +12.3% ROI make this a clear LEAN OVER opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Bourne's receiving yards props present a compelling case study in market inefficiency. The Patriots receiver has consistently outperformed his lines by 5.4 yards per game, suggesting oddsmakers have struggled to properly price his role in New England's offense. This isn't a small sample fluke—across 17 games spanning multiple seasons, Bourne has maintained remarkable consistency in exceeding expectations. The 58.8% over rate paired with a +12.3% ROI indicates sustainable value rather than random variance. What makes this trend particularly reliable is Bourne's role as a possession receiver who can accumulate yards through volume even in challenging matchups. His route tree typically includes shorter patterns that translate to consistent targets, creating a floor that betting lines haven't fully recognized. The absence of dramatic streak patterns (longest runs of 5 games each direction) suggests steady performance rather than boom-bust volatility. However, bettors should monitor Bourne's target share and health status, as any reduction in his offensive role could quickly erode this edge. The Patriots' offensive evolution and potential personnel changes represent the primary threat to this trend's continuation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Bourne's consistent outperformance of his receiving yards lines by 5.4 yards per game, combined with a 58.8% over rate and positive ROI, creates legitimate betting value. The trend appears sustainable given his role as a reliable possession receiver. Primary risk involves potential changes to his target share or offensive usage patterns that could disrupt this profitable pattern.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 21.5 | 22.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 19.5 | 18.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 27.5 | 44.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 25.5 | 39.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 26.5 | 30.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 41.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 18.5 | 14.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 15.5 | 9.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 19.5 | 6.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 45.5 | 36.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 40.5 | 63.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 38.5 | 89.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 31.5 | 43.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 33.5 | 36.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kendrick Bourne's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Kendrick Bourne's receiving yards props show a 10-7-0 over/under record (58.8% overs) across 17 games. He averages 33.24 yards against lines averaging 27.79, creating a +5.4 yard differential with +12.3% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kendrick Bourne Receiving Yards all games?
Bet the OVER on Bourne's receiving yards props. His consistent 5.4-yard outperformance of lines, 58.8% over rate, and positive ROI indicate sustainable value. Monitor his target share and health for any role changes.
What's Kendrick Bourne's average Receiving Yards all games?
Bourne averages 33.24 receiving yards per game compared to his average line of 27.79 yards. This +5.4 yard differential represents significant value, as he consistently exceeds market expectations by nearly 20% per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Bourne receiving yards overs when he maintains his regular offensive role and target share. Avoid if injury reports surface or if Patriots significantly alter their offensive personnel usage patterns that could reduce his involvement.