Justin Herbert's rushing yards props in conference games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 44.4% of overs across 18 games with a -15.2% ROI on the over side. Despite averaging 16.44 yards against 13.0 lines, the inconsistency creates value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Herbert's conference game rushing data reveals a fascinating disconnect between average performance and betting outcomes. While his 16.44-yard average suggests the 13.0 line is too low, the 8-10 over/under record tells a different story about consistency. The negative ROI on overs (-15.2%) indicates that Herbert's rushing yards in conference play are highly volatile, with enough low-output games to offset his occasional scrambling performances. Conference games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative game plans, which naturally limits quarterback rushing opportunities. Herbert's pocket-passing style means his rushing yards typically come from broken plays and designed rollouts rather than scrambles, making him dependent on game script and pressure rates. The current two-game under streak aligns with this pattern of inconsistency. The 6.1% ROI on unders suggests that books may be overadjusting for Herbert's athletic ability, creating systematic value on the under. Conference games also tend to feature more familiar defensive coordinators who can better gameplan against Herbert's tendencies, reducing his rushing floor compared to non-conference matchups where defensive preparation may be less thorough.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 44.4% over rate combined with negative over ROI creates systematic value on Herbert's rushing unders in conference games. Target this when the line sits at 13.0 or higher, particularly against defensive coordinators with prior exposure to Herbert's tendencies. Primary risk is a broken play or designed rollout inflating his numbers unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 28.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 21.5 | 29.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 65.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 32.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 2.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 8.5 | 2.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 16.5 | 0.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 16.5 | -5.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 13.5 | 47.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-06 | OPP | 8.5 | 17.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Herbert's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Herbert is 8-10 over/under on rushing yards props in conference games, hitting just 44.4% of overs with a -15.2% ROI on the over side across 18 games dating back to September 2023.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Herbert Rushing Yards conference games?
Lean under on Herbert's rushing yards in conference games. The 44.4% over rate and 6.1% under ROI indicate systematic overvaluation, particularly when lines sit at 13.0 or higher against familiar defensive schemes.
What's Justin Herbert's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Herbert averages 16.44 rushing yards in conference games against typical lines of 13.0, creating a +3.4 differential. However, this average masks significant volatility that favors under betting despite the positive differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert rushing unders when facing conference opponents with defensive coordinators who have prior exposure to his tendencies, particularly when lines are set at 13.0 or higher in divisional matchups.