Justin Fields has been a consistent under performer on rushing yards props, hitting over just 30% of the time across his last 10 games with a brutal -7.1 yard average shortfall. The under has delivered a robust 33.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged -42.7%. This presents a clear lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Justin Fields's rushing yards props reveal a quarterback whose mobility has been systematically overvalued by oddsmakers. Averaging 43.1 rushing yards against lines set at 50.2, Fields consistently falls short by more than a full touchdown's worth of field position. This 7.1-yard deficit isn't marginal variance—it represents a fundamental disconnect between perception and reality. The 30% over rate across 10 games suggests books are still pricing Fields based on his explosive college tape and occasional highlight runs rather than his NFL reality as a pocket-first quarterback. His longest under streak of four games indicates sustained periods where his rushing production disappoints, likely correlating with game scripts that favor passing or defenses specifically containing his mobility. The sample spans from late 2023 through mid-2024, covering different offensive systems and defensive preparations, yet the trend remains remarkably consistent. Fields appears to be a quarterback whose rushing ability gets neutralized by NFL-level preparation, particularly as teams have more film to study his tendencies. The persistence of this trend across multiple contexts suggests it's not situational but rather reflects his current role and the league's adaptation to his skill set.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 33.6% ROI on unders combined with the consistent -7.1 yard shortfall creates a profitable betting angle, though the sample size demands caution. Target this trend when Fields faces disciplined defenses or in games where Pittsburgh projects to throw more frequently. The primary risk is a breakout rushing performance that could signal a role change, but until that materializes, the data strongly favors continued under performance on his rushing yards props.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 39.5 | 59.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 46.5 | 27.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 55.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 42.5 | 6.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 45.5 | 27.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 56.5 | 27.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 54.5 | 45.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 97.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 57.5 | 30.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 58.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Fields's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Fields has gone 3-7-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of over bets. He's averaged 43.1 rushing yards against lines averaging 50.2, falling short by 7.1 yards per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Fields Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Fields's rushing yards props. The data shows a clear edge with unders producing 33.6% ROI while overs have lost 42.7%. His consistent shortfall of 7.1 yards per game makes this a profitable trend to follow.
What's Justin Fields's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Fields has averaged 43.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 50.2 yards. This represents a significant 7.1-yard shortfall per game, indicating consistent underperformance relative to market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fields rushing yards unders when Pittsburgh faces disciplined defenses or in pass-heavy game scripts. His 4-game under streak suggests the trend strengthens when defenses specifically game-plan to contain his mobility and force pocket passing.