JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a consistent under performer in conference games, hitting the over on just 27.3% of his receiving yards props with a brutal 3-8-0 record. Despite averaging 22.64 yards against a 17.14 line, the under delivers +38.8% ROI while overs lose nearly half their value. Lean Under.
Expert Analysis
Smith-Schuster's conference game struggles reveal a player whose role has fundamentally shifted within Kansas City's offensive hierarchy. The 27.3% over rate across 11 games isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance in the Chiefs' biggest games. While his 22.64-yard average technically beats the 17.14 line, this modest 5.5-yard edge gets obliterated by juice and variance, creating negative expected value for over bettors. The underlying issue appears to be game script and target distribution. Conference games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative offensive approaches, limiting Smith-Schuster's ceiling. His role as a possession receiver becomes even more constrained when Kansas City can rely on Travis Kelce and their running game in crucial divisional matchups. The -47.9% ROI on overs tells the real story—books have consistently set lines that trap casual bettors who see his name recognition without understanding his diminished target share. The recent streak data showing longer under runs than over runs further confirms this isn't a player who explodes for big games in conference play. His consistency works against him here, as moderate production rarely exceeds inflated expectations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Smith-Schuster's 27.3% over rate in conference games reflects his reduced role in Kansas City's hierarchy during crucial matchups. The +38.8% ROI on unders provides clear value despite his average exceeding the line. Target him when lines exceed 20 yards, as conference games typically feature more conservative game scripts that limit his upside. Primary risk is a blowout where garbage time inflates his numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 60.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 14.5 | 31.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 8.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 90.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 24.5 | 11.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 25.5 | 9.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 27.5 | 5.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 32.5 | 28.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is JuJu Smith-Schuster's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Smith-Schuster has gone 3-8-0 on receiving yards overs in conference games, hitting just 27.3% of his props. This represents one of the more consistent under trends among Chiefs receivers in divisional play.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet the under on Smith-Schuster's receiving yards in conference games. The 27.3% over rate and +38.8% ROI on unders provide clear value, especially when lines exceed 20 yards in crucial matchups.
What's JuJu Smith-Schuster's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Smith-Schuster averages 22.64 receiving yards in conference games against a typical line of 17.14 yards. While beating the line by 5.5 yards, this edge gets erased by juice and variance patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith-Schuster unders when lines exceed 20 yards in conference games, particularly in divisional matchups where game scripts favor conservative offensive approaches and increased reliance on Kelce and the ground game.