Joshua Dobbs has delivered mixed rushing results over his last 10 games, hitting the over 50% of the time with a 5-5-0 record. Despite averaging 31.3 yards against a 24.4 line (+6.9 differential), negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing. Current three-game under streak creates mild contrarian value.
Expert Analysis
Dobbs's rushing profile reveals a quarterback whose mobility creates consistent floor value but lacks explosive ceiling games. The 31.3-yard average significantly exceeds typical lines around 24.4, indicating bookmakers consistently undervalue his scrambling ability. However, the negative ROI on both sides (-4.5%) demonstrates sharp market adjustment, with lines tightening as Dobbs's rushing tendencies became established. The current three-game under streak represents his longest cold stretch, following a season where he alternated between over and under results without sustained momentum in either direction. His rushing production appears matchup-dependent rather than game-script driven, as quarterback rushing often correlates with pressure rates and designed mobility concepts. The lack of extreme outliers in either direction suggests a player whose rushing floor and ceiling are relatively predictable, making this a volume-based rather than big-play dependent prop. The 50% hit rate combined with negative expected value indicates efficient market pricing has caught up to early-season inefficiencies.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The three-game under streak creates mild regression potential, but the negative ROI suggests this market has found equilibrium. Dobbs's rushing production appears capped by San Francisco's offensive system, which prioritizes pocket passing over designed quarterback runs. Target unders when lines exceed 28 yards, as the data suggests bookmakers occasionally overcorrect. Primary risk is a high-pressure game forcing scrambles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 27.5 | 17.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 25.5 | 21.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 34.5 | 11.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 30.5 | 44.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 29.5 | 26.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 21.5 | 43.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 19.5 | 47.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 23.5 | 1.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 17.5 | 48.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 14.5 | 55.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joshua Dobbs's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Dobbs has gone 5-5-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with a -4.5% ROI on both sides, indicating efficient market pricing despite his consistent rushing production.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joshua Dobbs Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Dobbs rushing yards props. The current three-game under streak and negative ROI suggest the market has adjusted efficiently, with San Francisco's system limiting his designed rushing opportunities compared to other mobile quarterbacks.
What's Joshua Dobbs's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Dobbs averages 31.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 24.4 yards, creating a +6.9 differential that shows consistent undervaluation but hasn't translated to profitable betting opportunities.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dobbs rushing unders when lines exceed 28 yards, as bookmakers occasionally overcorrect. Avoid betting during high-pressure games where scrambling becomes necessary, as his rushing production spikes under defensive pressure.