Joshua Dobbs has hit over his passing touchdown prop just 50% of the time across his last 10 games, averaging 1.1 touchdowns against a 1.2 line. The slight underperformance creates marginal value on unders, though the sample size and quarterback volatility demand caution.
Expert Analysis
Dobbs's passing touchdown production reveals a quarterback operating within a constrained offensive system that limits explosive scoring opportunities. His 1.1 touchdown average against a 1.2 line represents a meaningful 8.3% gap that speaks to consistent market overvaluation of his red zone efficiency. The 50% over rate masks concerning underlying metrics - when Dobbs fails to hit his number, he tends to fall short decisively rather than narrowly missing. His longest under streak of three games suggests the market struggles to adjust quickly enough to his limitations in high-leverage situations. The lack of split data prevents deeper contextual analysis, but Dobbs's profile as a mobile quarterback who relies more on rushing touchdowns than passing scores in close games creates systematic bias toward unders. His recent integration into San Francisco's system likely means reduced familiarity with red zone concepts compared to established starters, while the 49ers' strong running game and defense-first approach naturally caps his throwing volume in scoring situations. The -4.5% ROI on both sides indicates efficient market pricing, but the slight statistical edge toward unders persists.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 1.1 average versus 1.2 line creates legitimate value despite the balanced 5-5 record. Dobbs operates in a system that prioritizes ball control over explosive passing, and his unfamiliarity with San Francisco's red zone packages limits touchdown upside. Target unders when the line sits at 1.5, but avoid at shorter numbers where one score swings the outcome.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joshua Dobbs's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Dobbs has gone 5-5 on his passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of the time. He's averaging 1.1 passing touchdowns per game against an average line of 1.2, showing slight underperformance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joshua Dobbs Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean under on Dobbs passing touchdown props. His 1.1 average versus 1.2 line creates value, especially with San Francisco's run-heavy approach limiting his red zone opportunities. Target unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher.
What's Joshua Dobbs's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Dobbs averages 1.1 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 1.2. This 0.1 touchdown gap represents meaningful underperformance that creates systematic value on under bets in the right spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dobbs passing touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5, particularly against strong run defenses that force San Francisco to lean on their ground game. Avoid betting when lines drop to 0.5 where variance becomes too influential.