Joshua Dobbs's passing touchdown props show marginal over value with a 53.8% hit rate (7-6-0) across 13 games. His 1.0 touchdown average essentially matches the typical 1.04 line, creating a razor-thin edge. The +2.8% ROI on overs suggests slight value, warranting a lean over approach.
Expert Analysis
Dobbs's touchdown production reflects the reality of a journeyman quarterback thrust into varying roles across different systems. His 1.0 touchdown average against a 1.04 line creates an incredibly tight margin, but the 53.8% over rate combined with positive ROI indicates the market may be slightly undervaluing his red zone opportunities. The sample spans his time with multiple teams, suggesting this performance level represents his true baseline rather than system-specific variance. What's particularly noteworthy is the consistency of his production - he's neither a high-ceiling player who dramatically exceeds expectations nor a floor player who consistently disappoints. This creates a profile where books may be pricing him conservatively, especially given his reputation as a backup. The modest positive ROI on overs, while small, is significant over a 13-game sample and suggests that when Dobbs gets extended playing time, he finds ways to reach the end zone at a rate that slightly exceeds market expectations. However, the thin margins mean this edge could evaporate quickly with any shift in usage or game script.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 53.8% over rate and +2.8% ROI provide a legitimate but narrow edge that justifies small unit plays. Dobbs consistently finds ways to generate touchdown production that slightly exceeds conservative market pricing. The main risk is the razor-thin differential between his average and typical lines, meaning variance can quickly erode profits. Target spots where he's getting full starter reps rather than relief appearances.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joshua Dobbs's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Dobbs has hit the over on passing touchdowns in 7 of 13 games (53.8%) with a 7-6-0 record. His average of 1.0 touchdowns per game sits just below the typical 1.04 line, creating minimal separation.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joshua Dobbs Passing TDs all games?
Lean over on Dobbs's passing touchdown props. The 53.8% hit rate and +2.8% ROI provide a narrow but legitimate edge, especially when he's getting full starter reps rather than relief appearances.
What's Joshua Dobbs's average Passing TDs all games?
Dobbs averages exactly 1.0 passing touchdowns per game across his 13-game sample. This sits 0.04 touchdowns below the typical 1.04 line, creating an extremely tight margin between his production and market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dobbs touchdown props when he's confirmed as the starter with full game preparation. Avoid relief appearances or games where his snap count is uncertain, as the thin margins require consistent opportunity volume.