Josh Reynolds shows mild over tendencies in away games with a 53.8% over rate (7-6-0) and averages 34.46 receiving yards against a 27.58 baseline. The +6.9 differential suggests consistent line value, though the modest 2.8% ROI indicates thin edges requiring selective timing.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds' away game receiving yards profile reveals a player consistently outperforming modest market expectations. The 34.46 average against a 27.58 line represents a meaningful 25% premium that has sustained across 13 games spanning multiple seasons. This differential suggests oddsmakers may be undervaluing Reynolds' road production, possibly due to his complementary role in Jacksonville's offense or general market inefficiency around secondary receivers. The 53.8% over rate paired with positive ROI indicates genuine edge rather than random variance. However, the thin 2.8% return highlights how efficiently the market prices most props, making game-specific factors crucial for identifying optimal spots. Reynolds' away performance likely benefits from defensive game planning that focuses on containing primary targets, creating favorable matchups for a reliable possession receiver. The recent under streak of one game shouldn't concern bettors given the longer-term pattern, but the lack of dominant over stretches (longest: 4 games) suggests this edge manifests gradually rather than in explosive bursts. The absence of significant under ROI bleeding (-11.9%) indicates fading overs hasn't been profitable, supporting the directional bias toward Reynolds exceeding his receiving yards total on the road.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Reynolds' consistent 6.9-yard premium over his away lines represents genuine market inefficiency for a possession receiver who benefits from road game scripts. Target spots where Jacksonville projects to trail or face pass-heavy game flow, as Reynolds thrives in volume-driven scenarios. Main risk is his secondary role limiting target ceiling in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 24.5 | 0.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 32.5 | 36.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 29.5 | 45.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 35.5 | 25.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-30 | OPP | 19.5 | 13.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 20.5 | 16.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 20.5 | 44.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 19.5 | 12.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 27.5 | 15.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 33.5 | 43.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 34.5 | 50.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 32.5 | 69.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-07 | OPP | 28.5 | 80.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Reynolds's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Josh Reynolds has gone over his receiving yards prop in 7 of 13 away games (53.8% rate) with a 7-6-0 record. He averages 34.46 yards against a typical 27.58 line, showing consistent value.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards away games?
Lean over on Reynolds' receiving yards in away games. His 6.9-yard average premium over the line and 53.8% over rate indicate market undervaluation, especially in projected high-volume passing situations.
What's Josh Reynolds's average Receiving Yards away games?
Reynolds averages 34.46 receiving yards in away games compared to his typical 27.58 line. This +6.9 differential represents a 25% premium, suggesting oddsmakers consistently undervalue his road production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds receiving yards overs when Jacksonville is projected to trail or face pass-heavy opponents. His complementary role thrives in volume-driven road scenarios where defensive attention focuses on primary receivers.