Jordan Love's rushing yards at home present a compelling under opportunity with just 26.7% overs hitting across 15 games. The Packers quarterback averages 7.4 rushing yards against a typical 9.77 line, creating a -2.4 differential that has generated 40% ROI on unders.
Expert Analysis
Love's home rushing struggles stem from Green Bay's offensive philosophy and game script tendencies at Lambeau Field. The Packers' commitment to their rushing attack with Josh Jacobs and AJ Dillon reduces Love's designed runs, while their typically strong home performances often lead to comfortable leads where scrambling becomes unnecessary. The 15-game sample reveals consistent underperformance, with Love averaging 7.4 yards against lines typically set around 9.77. This isn't simply variance - it reflects structural factors in how Green Bay operates at home. The current five-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Love's limited mobility in home game scripts. His pocket presence improves at Lambeau, reducing scramble opportunities, while the crowd noise actually benefits the home offense's rhythm, leading to cleaner pockets and fewer rushed throws that might generate rushing yards. The -49.1% ROI on overs tells the story of a market inefficiency that continues to present value.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 73.3% under rate across 15 home games represents a clear market edge, enhanced by Love's -2.4 yard differential against typical lines. Target this when lines exceed 9 yards, particularly in favorable weather conditions where Green Bay's ground game dominates. The primary risk lies in potential blowout losses forcing Love into scramble mode, though his five-game under streak suggests this concern may be overblown.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 13.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 8.5 | -1.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 1.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 14.5 | 10.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 34.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 16.5 | -2.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 39.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Jordan Love has gone under his rushing yards prop in 11 of 15 home games (73.3%), with just 4 overs hitting. He averages 7.4 rushing yards at home against typical lines around 9.77 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Love's rushing yards at home. The 73.3% under rate and +40% ROI on unders across 15 games creates a clear edge, especially with his current five-game under streak.
What's Jordan Love's average Rushing Yards home games?
Love averages 7.4 rushing yards in home games, falling 2.4 yards short of the typical 9.77 line. This consistent underperformance has created profitable under opportunities throughout his home starts.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Love rushing unders at home when lines exceed 9 yards, particularly in good weather when Green Bay's ground game dominates. Avoid in potential blowout losses where scrambling becomes necessary.