Jordan Love has been a home passing yards goldmine, hitting the over in 68.8% of his home starts with an 11-5-0 record. The Packers quarterback averages 248.69 yards at Lambeau Field, consistently outpacing his typical 232.25 line by 16.4 yards per game. This represents a clear over lean with strong historical backing.
Expert Analysis
Love's home dominance stems from Green Bay's offensive philosophy at Lambeau Field, where they've consistently leaned into his arm talent in favorable conditions. The 16.4-yard average differential above typical lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his home splits, creating persistent value. His 31.2% ROI on overs demonstrates this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge rooted in scheme and environment. The concerning element is his recent cold streak with two consecutive unders, snapping what was previously a remarkable 9-game over run. However, regression toward his established home mean suggests this downturn is temporary rather than indicative of a fundamental shift. Love's comfort level at Lambeau, combined with Green Bay's tendency to open up the passing attack in familiar surroundings, creates the foundation for this trend's persistence. The sample size of 16 games provides statistical significance while avoiding the trap of small-sample noise that plagues many prop trends.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Love's 68.8% over rate at home represents genuine value, particularly when lines hover around his historical 232.25 average. The recent two-game under streak actually creates better line value as the market may be overreacting to short-term results. Target this prop when Love's home line sits below 240 yards, as the 16.4-yard historical edge provides comfortable cushion for profitable long-term betting.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 205.5 | 69.0 | -136.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 231.5 | 182.0 | -49.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 244.5 | 274.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 240.5 | 163.0 | -77.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 221.5 | 273.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 248.5 | 220.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 260.5 | 258.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 238.5 | 389.0 | +150.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 250.5 | 316.0 | +65.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 248.5 | 284.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 219.5 | 267.0 | +47.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 232.5 | 322.0 | +89.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 217.5 | 228.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 219.5 | 229.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 227.5 | 246.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Passing Yards prop record home games?
Jordan Love has gone over his passing yards prop in 11 of 16 home games (68.8% rate) with zero pushes. This 11-5-0 record has generated a strong 31.2% return on investment for over bettors at Lambeau Field.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Passing Yards home games?
Bet the over on Jordan Love's passing yards props at home. His 68.8% over rate and 16.4-yard average differential above lines creates clear long-term value, especially when his line sits below 240 yards.
What's Jordan Love's average Passing Yards home games?
Jordan Love averages 248.69 passing yards in home games compared to his typical line of 232.25 yards. This 16.4-yard positive differential represents significant value that oddsmakers haven't fully recognized in their pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jordan Love passing yards overs when his home line is set below 240 yards. The ideal spots come after under results when the market may overreact, creating even better line value for his established home trends.