Jordan Love's passing touchdown props in conference games present a marginal edge toward overs, hitting 53.8% (14-12) with a modest +2.8% ROI. His 1.69 average exceeds the typical 1.5 line by 0.2 touchdowns, though he's currently mired in a four-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Love's conference game touchdown production reveals a quarterback still finding consistency in his second season as Green Bay's starter. The 1.69 average against conference opponents suggests he performs adequately within the NFC North and broader conference matchups, benefiting from familiarity with divisional schemes and the Packers' offensive system maturation. However, the modest 53.8% over rate indicates this isn't a dominant trend—Love faces tougher defensive coordinators who've had time to study his tendencies. The +2.8% ROI on overs reflects slight market inefficiency, likely due to public perception lagging behind his actual conference performance. The current four-game under streak raises concerns about recent form or defensive adjustments, though historically Love has shown bounce-back ability with his career-long nine-game over streak. Conference games often feature more conservative game plans and better defensive preparation, which could explain why his touchdown rate isn't higher despite solid yardage production. The lack of dramatic splits suggests Love's performance remains relatively stable across different conference scenarios, making this a volume-based edge rather than situational exploitation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Love's 1.69 conference average consistently exceeds standard 1.5 lines, creating mathematical value despite the recent cold streak. Target games where Green Bay faces weaker conference secondaries or high-total contests where touchdown volume increases naturally. The primary risk remains his current four-game under run potentially reflecting genuine regression or defensive adjustments that haven't fully materialized in the season-long numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Passing TDs prop record conference games?
Jordan Love has gone 14-12 on passing touchdown overs in conference games (53.8% over rate) across 26 games since becoming Green Bay's starter, averaging 1.69 touchdowns per conference contest.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Passing TDs conference games?
Lean toward betting over on Love's passing touchdown props in conference games. His 1.69 average consistently beats standard 1.5 lines, though avoid during his current four-game under streak unless facing weak secondaries.
What's Jordan Love's average Passing TDs conference games?
Love averages 1.69 passing touchdowns in conference games, which is 0.2 touchdowns above the typical 1.5 line. This differential creates mathematical value for over bettors in most conference matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Love's touchdown overs in high-total conference games or when facing bottom-tier NFC secondaries. Avoid betting during cold streaks like his current four-game under run unless game script strongly favors passing volume.