Jordan Love's passing touchdown props show a profitable over trend with a 58.8% hit rate (20-14) across 34 games since taking over as starter. His 1.71 average significantly outpaces the typical 1.53 line, creating consistent value. The data supports leaning over despite a recent cold streak.
Expert Analysis
Love's passing touchdown production reflects Green Bay's offensive evolution under his leadership, with the young quarterback consistently exceeding modest market expectations set during his transition from Aaron Rodgers. The +0.18 differential between his actual output and betting lines suggests oddsmakers have been slow to adjust to Love's red zone efficiency and the Packers' commitment to an aerial attack in scoring situations. His 1.71 average across 34 games demonstrates remarkable consistency for a quarterback still establishing his NFL identity. The current four-game under streak appears more anomalous than indicative, especially considering his previous 10-game over run shows his ceiling potential. Love's touchdown production benefits from Green Bay's improved receiving corps and Matt LaFleur's system that maximizes red zone opportunities through play-action and RPO concepts. The 12.3% ROI on overs indicates sustainable edge, while the harsh -21.4% ROI on unders warns against fading this trend. Love's development trajectory suggests continued growth in touchdown efficiency as he gains experience reading defenses and building chemistry with his targets.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Love's 1.71 average substantially exceeds typical lines around 1.53, creating consistent value despite the recent four-game under streak. The 58.8% over rate and strong +12.3% ROI demonstrate a sustainable edge rooted in his red zone efficiency and Green Bay's pass-heavy approach near the goal line. Primary risk involves potential regression after his hot start, but the underlying offensive system supports continued touchdown production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Love's passing touchdown props are 20-14 to the over (58.8%) across 34 games since becoming Green Bay's starter. He's averaged 1.71 touchdowns per game against typical lines around 1.53, generating a +12.3% ROI on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Passing TDs all games?
Bet the over on Love's passing touchdown props. His 1.71 average significantly exceeds market lines, and the 58.8% over rate with positive ROI demonstrates consistent value despite his recent four-game under streak.
What's Jordan Love's average Passing TDs all games?
Love averages 1.71 passing touchdowns per game across 34 starts, compared to typical betting lines around 1.53. This +0.18 differential represents substantial value, as he consistently exceeds market expectations in touchdown production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Love's touchdown overs when lines are set at 1.5 or lower, maximizing the edge from his 1.71 average. Avoid during potential weather games or against elite pass defenses that could limit red zone opportunities.