Jordan Addison has been a consistent over performer in conference games, hitting the over at a 60.9% clip with a 14-9 record. His 57.61 yard average significantly exceeds typical lines by 8.3 yards, generating a strong +16.2% ROI on overs. This represents a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Addison's conference game performance reveals a player who consistently exceeds market expectations when facing divisional opponents. The 8.3-yard differential between his actual production (57.61 yards) and typical betting lines represents significant market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit. Conference games often feature heightened intensity and game-planning familiarity that tends to favor skilled route runners like Addison, who can find soft spots in zone coverage and exploit timing-based concepts. The Vikings' offensive system appears particularly effective against conference opponents, likely due to Kevin O'Connell's ability to identify and attack divisional weaknesses through film study. The sample size of 23 games provides statistical reliability, while the +16.2% ROI on overs demonstrates sustained profitability that suggests this isn't random variance. However, the recent two-game under streak indicates potential regression, and conference games can sometimes feature weather complications late in the season. The -25.3% ROI on unders shows how consistently the market has undervalued Addison's conference production, making this a high-conviction trend for continued over betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 8.3-yard average differential and 60.9% over rate in conference games represents a sustainable edge rooted in scheme advantages and divisional familiarity. Target overs when lines fall below 55 yards, particularly in dome games or favorable weather conditions. The main risk is the current two-game under streak potentially signaling market adjustment, but the long-term data strongly favors continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 58.5 | 29.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 0.0 | -68.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 59.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 52.5 | 35.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 53.5 | 63.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 133.0 | +87.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 50.5 | 54.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 35.5 | 162.0 | +126.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-24 | OPP | 44.5 | 22.0 | -22.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 49.5 | 66.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 72.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 44.5 | 35.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 50.5 | 57.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 47.5 | 2.0 | -45.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 49.5 | 39.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jordan Addison props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Addison's Receiving Yards prop record conference games?
Jordan Addison has gone over his receiving yards prop in 14 of 23 conference games (60.9% hit rate) with a 14-9 overall record. This represents consistent profitability with a +16.2% ROI on over bets across a statistically significant sample size spanning multiple seasons.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Addison Receiving Yards conference games?
Bet over on Jordan Addison's receiving yards in conference games. The 8.3-yard average differential above typical lines and 60.9% over rate creates a sustainable edge. Focus on lines below 55 yards for maximum value, especially in favorable weather conditions.
What's Jordan Addison's average Receiving Yards conference games?
Jordan Addison averages 57.61 receiving yards in conference games compared to typical betting lines of 49.28 yards. This 8.3-yard differential represents significant market undervaluation and has generated consistent profitability for over bettors throughout his career in divisional matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jordan Addison receiving yards overs when lines are set below 55 yards in conference games, particularly in dome environments or good weather. Avoid betting during his current two-game under streak unless the line drops significantly below his season average.