Jonathan Taylor has demolished rushing yards lines over the past 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip while averaging 108.2 yards against typical 79.5 lines. This 28.7-yard average differential represents legitimate volume-driven production that shows no signs of regression. Strong lean over on Taylor rushing props.
Expert Analysis
Taylor's rushing yards dominance stems from Indianapolis finally committing to a ground-heavy offensive identity that maximizes his elite talent. The 108.2 yards per game average represents a significant uptick from earlier season struggles when the Colts were still finding their offensive rhythm. What makes this trend particularly sustainable is the underlying volume metrics - Taylor is seeing consistent 20+ carry games that create a high floor for yardage production. The 28.7-yard differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers are still catching up to this offensive shift. Taylor's efficiency metrics have also improved dramatically, as the offensive line has gelled and play-calling has become more Taylor-centric. The five-game over streak isn't fluky variance but rather reflects a team that has discovered its identity. The key sustainability factor is Indianapolis's commitment to controlling games through the ground game, which naturally leads to higher carry totals for Taylor. While some regression is inevitable, the underlying volume and efficiency improvements suggest this trend has staying power. The lack of significant injury concerns and Taylor's proven durability make this a particularly reliable prop market.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Taylor's volume-driven production and the Colts' commitment to a run-heavy approach create a sustainable edge against rushing yards lines. The 28.7-yard average differential indicates genuine value, not just hot variance. Primary risk is potential game script issues if Indianapolis falls behind early, but their recent offensive identity suggests they'll stick with the ground game even in catch-up situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 177.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 97.5 | 125.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 86.5 | 218.0 | +131.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 76.5 | 107.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 79.5 | 96.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 71.5 | 35.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 82.5 | 57.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 78.5 | 114.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 72.5 | 48.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 65.5 | 105.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Taylor has gone over his rushing yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% over rate), with only 3 unders during this stretch. His 7-3-0 over/under record demonstrates consistent line-beating performance across multiple game situations and matchups.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Taylor's rushing yards props. His 70% over rate and 28.7-yard average differential above typical lines create clear value. The Colts' run-heavy approach and Taylor's consistent volume make overs the smart play in this market.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Taylor has averaged 108.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 79.5 yards. This 28.7-yard positive differential represents significant value, as he's consistently outperforming market expectations by nearly 30 yards per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor rushing yards overs when Indianapolis is favored or in close games where they can control tempo. His volume-based production thrives when the Colts can dictate game flow through their ground attack and avoid negative game scripts.