Jonathan Taylor shows a slight edge toward overs in away games with a 6-5-0 record (54.5% hit rate) and averages 74.45 rushing yards against a 73.5 line. The +4.1% ROI on overs versus -13.2% on unders suggests modest value, though the sample size demands caution. Lean over with selectivity.
Expert Analysis
Taylor's away rushing performance reveals a nuanced pattern that defies conventional road game narratives. While many running backs struggle away from home due to crowd noise affecting offensive line communication and unfamiliar field conditions, Taylor maintains near-even production with his 74.45 yard average essentially matching the 73.5 line. The +4.1% ROI on overs indicates genuine value, particularly when contrasted with the -13.2% loss rate on unders. This suggests the market may be slightly undervaluing his road consistency. The current three-game over streak aligns with his season-long tendency, though regression risk exists given the modest sample size. Taylor's success away from home likely stems from Indianapolis's commitment to establishing the run regardless of game script, plus his ability to create yards after contact in hostile environments. The Colts' offensive line has shown better road cohesion than expected, providing Taylor with adequate rushing lanes. However, the narrow 0.9 yard differential above the line indicates this isn't a dominant trend but rather a subtle market inefficiency that sharp bettors can exploit selectively.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Taylor's 54.5% over rate and positive ROI on away rushing props indicates a slight but consistent edge. The key driver is Indianapolis's road game commitment to the ground game, which has kept Taylor productive even in challenging environments. Target overs when the line sits at 73.5 or lower, particularly against defenses allowing over 4.3 yards per carry. Main risk is small sample variance and potential negative game scripts in blowout losses.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 97.5 | 125.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 76.5 | 107.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 79.5 | 96.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 82.5 | 57.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 72.5 | 48.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 65.5 | 105.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 80.5 | 103.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 70.5 | 43.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 67.5 | 69.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 47.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 47.5 | 19.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Rushing Yards prop record away games?
Taylor's away rushing yards record stands at 6-5-0 over/under with a 54.5% hit rate on overs. He averages 74.45 yards per road game against a typical 73.5 line, showing slight but consistent value on the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards away games?
Lean over on Taylor's away rushing yards props. The +4.1% ROI on overs versus -13.2% losses on unders indicates genuine market value, particularly when the line sits at 73.5 or below in favorable matchups.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Rushing Yards away games?
Taylor averages 74.45 rushing yards in away games, which is 0.9 yards above the standard 73.5 line. This narrow but consistent differential has produced profitable over results across his 11-game road sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor rushing overs in away games when facing defenses allowing over 4.3 yards per carry and the line is 73.5 or lower. Avoid when Indianapolis faces large deficits that could force pass-heavy game scripts.