Jonathan Taylor's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting 65.2% of the time with a massive +24.5% ROI. His 90.3 yard average crushes the typical 72.72 line by 17.6 yards per game. This is a strong lean over with sustainable edge.
Expert Analysis
Jonathan Taylor's rushing yards dominance stems from his elite talent meeting favorable game scripts and volume. The 17.6 yard differential above betting lines isn't just variance—it reflects consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers who haven't fully adjusted to his post-injury production levels. Taylor's 90.3 yard average across 23 games demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only 8 unders in that span. The current 5-game over streak aligns with his seasonal pattern, where he typically builds momentum as defenses wear down. His longest under streak of just 2 games shows how quickly he bounces back from subpar performances. The Colts' offensive system maximizes Taylor's skill set through designed runs and checkdowns that pad his rushing totals. Most importantly, the betting market continues to set lines that don't fully account for his workload in competitive games. While injury risk exists for any workhorse back, Taylor's durability and the Colts' commitment to establishing the run create a sustainable edge. The 65.2% over rate isn't just hot variance—it's systematic undervaluation meeting elite production. This trend has legs because Taylor's role remains unchanged and his talent level exceeds what typical 72-yard lines suggest.
Betting Verdict
OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 17.6 yard cushion above typical lines creates genuine value, especially with Taylor's consistent 90+ yard performances. Ideal conditions include competitive games where the Colts need sustained drives. Main risk is potential blowout losses where Indianapolis abandons the run early, but Taylor's receiving ability provides floor protection even in negative game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 177.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 97.5 | 125.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 86.5 | 218.0 | +131.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 76.5 | 107.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 79.5 | 96.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 71.5 | 35.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 82.5 | 57.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 78.5 | 114.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 72.5 | 48.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 65.5 | 105.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 76.5 | 88.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 73.5 | 110.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 80.5 | 103.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 74.5 | 48.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 67.5 | 188.0 | +120.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Jonathan Taylor has gone over his rushing yards prop in 15 of 23 games (65.2%) since October 2023. He's hit just 8 unders with a +24.5% ROI for over bettors, making this one of the most profitable trends in the NFL.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the over on Jonathan Taylor's rushing yards. His 90.3 yard average consistently beats typical 72.72 lines by 17.6 yards per game. The 65.2% hit rate and +24.5% ROI make this a sustainable edge worth targeting regularly.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Rushing Yards all games?
Jonathan Taylor averages 90.3 rushing yards per game across his 23-game sample. This crushes the typical betting line of 72.72 yards by 17.6 yards, creating consistent value for over bettors who recognize this systematic undervaluation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jonathan Taylor rushing yards overs in competitive games where Indianapolis needs sustained drives. Avoid potential blowout losses, though his receiving ability provides floor protection. His 5-game over streak suggests current form favors continued success.