Jonathan Taylor's receiving yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% over the last 10 games with a devastating -3.6 yard average shortfall. The Colts' ground-heavy approach and Taylor's limited route tree create a sustainable edge favoring unders.
Expert Analysis
Jonathan Taylor's receiving production has cratered over his last 10 games, averaging just 7.6 yards against lines typically set around 11.2 yards. This isn't random variance — it reflects Indianapolis's offensive philosophy shift toward establishing Taylor as a pure ground threat rather than a dual-purpose weapon. The Colts have increasingly relied on their tight ends and slot receivers for short passing work, relegating Taylor to occasional checkdowns and screens. His longest receiving streak reached just two games, while he posted seven consecutive unders at one point, suggesting books have been slow to adjust their pricing models. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates severe market inefficiency, as oddsmakers continue overvaluing Taylor's pass-catching upside based on his college profile and early NFL flashes. Indianapolis's pace of play and Anthony Richardson's tendency to scramble rather than dump off to running backs further limits Taylor's receiving opportunities. The consistency of this trend — hitting under 70% of the time — suggests structural rather than situational factors. Taylor's role definition appears crystallized around his elite rushing ability, making him a volume runner who occasionally catches passes rather than a true receiving threat. This philosophical approach from Indianapolis creates predictable betting value, especially when books fail to account for the Colts' commitment to traditional ground-and-pound concepts that minimize running back involvement in the passing game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% under rate and -3.6 yard differential create clear value, but the small sample size prevents high conviction. Target unders when lines exceed 10 yards, especially in games where Indianapolis projects to control tempo. The primary risk is a potential role expansion if the Colts fall behind early and need Taylor's pass-catching skills more frequently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 8.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 11.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Taylor has gone under his receiving yards prop in 7 of 10 games (30% over rate), averaging 7.6 yards against typical lines around 11.2 yards for a -3.6 yard shortfall per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Taylor's receiving yards props. The 70% under rate and consistent -3.6 yard deficit suggest books are overvaluing his pass-catching role in Indianapolis's ground-focused offense.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Taylor has averaged 7.6 receiving yards over his last 10 games, falling 3.6 yards short of the typical 11.2-yard line, indicating significant market overvaluation of his receiving production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target unders when lines exceed 10 yards and Indianapolis projects neutral or positive game script. Avoid when the Colts are heavy underdogs and may need Taylor's pass-catching skills more frequently.