Joe Mixon's rushing yards props have been a coin flip over his last 10 games, hitting the over exactly 50% of the time with a 5-5 record. The veteran back is averaging 68.4 yards against lines averaging 74.8, creating a concerning 6.4-yard deficit that suggests books are pricing him accurately or even generously.
Expert Analysis
Joe Mixon's recent rushing performance reveals a player whose production has fallen short of market expectations, averaging 6.4 yards below his typical prop lines over the last 10 games. This deficit isn't marginal—it represents nearly a full possession of missed production per game, suggesting either declining efficiency or Houston's offensive system limiting his ceiling. The perfectly balanced 5-5 over/under record masks the underlying concern that Mixon is consistently falling short of oddsmakers' projections. His current two-game over streak follows a three-game under streak, indicating volatility rather than sustainable momentum. The -4.5% ROI on both sides demonstrates that books have priced these props efficiently, leaving little edge for bettors. Mixon's age and workload history suggest this underperformance may reflect natural decline rather than temporary variance. Houston's pass-heavy approach under their current offensive scheme has likely capped his rushing volume, making the higher prop lines increasingly difficult to clear. Without significant scheme changes or injury to passing game weapons, Mixon's rushing production appears more likely to disappoint than exceed expectations moving forward.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.4-yard average deficit below prop lines indicates books may still be overvaluing Mixon's rushing ceiling in Houston's current offensive framework. Target unders when lines exceed 75 yards, especially in potential shootout scenarios where Houston abandons the ground game early. Main risk is positive game script creating garbage time rushing opportunities that inflate his numbers despite poor efficiency.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 57.5 | 88.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 71.5 | 106.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 62.5 | 26.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 63.5 | 57.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 78.5 | 23.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 82.5 | 101.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 86.5 | 22.0 | -64.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 86.5 | 109.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 75.5 | 46.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 83.5 | 106.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Mixon's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Joe Mixon has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games for a 50% hit rate. His 5-5 over/under record shows perfectly balanced results, though he's averaging 6.4 yards below typical prop lines.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Mixon Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Joe Mixon rushing yards props. His 6.4-yard deficit below average prop lines over 10 games suggests books are still overvaluing his production in Houston's pass-heavy system, creating consistent under value.
What's Joe Mixon's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Joe Mixon is averaging 68.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to prop lines averaging 74.8 yards. This 6.4-yard deficit indicates he's consistently falling short of market expectations by nearly one possession per game.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joe Mixon rushing unders when prop lines exceed 75 yards, particularly in games where Houston is expected to trail and abandon the ground game. Avoid betting his props in potential blowout wins where garbage time could inflate numbers.