Joe Mixon's rushing yards props at home present a clear under opportunity, with only a 33.3% over rate (5-10) across 15 games. His 49.13-yard average falls 18.1 yards short of the typical 67.23 line, creating a profitable under bet with +27.3% ROI.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic underperformance by Joe Mixon in home rushing yards props that extends beyond random variance. Averaging just 49.13 yards against lines typically set around 67.23, Mixon consistently fails to meet market expectations at home by nearly 27%. This 18.1-yard differential suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his home performance patterns or there are underlying factors suppressing his production at NRG Stadium. The 33.3% over rate across 15 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the +27.3% ROI on unders demonstrates the market inefficiency. His recent streak patterns show volatility, with a longest under streak of four games indicating sustained periods of disappointing production. The lack of split data prevents deeper context analysis, but the core numbers paint a clear picture of a player whose home rushing output consistently disappoints relative to market pricing. This trend appears persistent rather than coincidental, given the significant sample size and consistent underperformance margin. Bettors should note that while the trend is strong, any major offensive line changes, game script variations, or injury reports could impact future results.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Joe Mixon's home rushing yards props offer consistent value on the under, supported by a 67% hit rate and nearly 20-yard average shortfall. The ideal betting conditions occur when lines are set above 60 yards, maximizing the gap between market expectations and actual performance. Main risk involves potential positive regression, as this level of underperformance may eventually correct itself through improved offensive line play or more favorable game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 71.5 | 106.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 62.5 | 26.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 78.5 | 23.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 86.5 | 22.0 | -64.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 75.5 | 46.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 77.5 | 102.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 71.5 | 25.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-16 | OPP | 54.5 | 47.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 60.5 | 79.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 64.5 | 16.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 64.5 | 46.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 62.5 | 37.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 61.5 | 38.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-25 | OPP | 60.5 | 65.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 56.5 | 59.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Mixon's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Joe Mixon has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 5 of 15 home games (33.3% rate). He's hit the under 10 times, creating a 10-5 under record that strongly favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Mixon Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Joe Mixon's rushing yards in home games. His 67% under rate and +27.3% ROI on unders make this a profitable long-term strategy, especially when lines exceed 60 yards.
What's Joe Mixon's average Rushing Yards home games?
Joe Mixon averages 49.13 rushing yards in home games, falling 18.1 yards short of the typical 67.23 line. This significant gap creates consistent value for under bettors in home matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joe Mixon rushing yards unders when lines are set above 60 yards at home. The larger the gap between his 49.13 average and the posted line, the greater the edge for under bettors.