Joe Mixon's receiving yards have gone under in 60% of his last 10 games, posting a 4-6 over/under record with a modest +1.4 yard differential above the typical 20.0 line. The under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have hemorrhaged 23.6%, creating a clear directional edge.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a compelling picture for Houston's backfield receiving dynamics. Mixon's 21.4-yard average barely exceeds the standard 20-yard line, but the distribution tells the real story. His current four-game under streak represents his longest cold stretch, suggesting books may be slow to adjust lines downward. The 14.6% ROI on unders indicates genuine market inefficiency rather than random variance. Houston's offensive philosophy appears to limit Mixon's pass-catching role compared to his Cincinnati days, where he routinely cleared 25+ yards receiving. The Texans' young quarterback C.J. Stroud has shown preference for quicker outlets to receivers rather than checkdowns to the backfield. Mixon's receiving usage correlates heavily with game script—he sees more targets when trailing but Houston's improved defense keeps them competitive, reducing desperation passing situations. The 40% over rate aligns with a running back whose receiving role has been systematically reduced in this offensive system. With books potentially overvaluing his historical receiving production, this trend has staying power through the remainder of the season.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Houston's reduced emphasis on backfield receiving creates sustainable value. Target this prop when Houston is favored or in neutral game scripts where Mixon's rushing role dominates. The main risk is a blowout loss forcing increased passing volume, but the Texans' competitive defense minimizes those scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 17.5 | 12.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 13.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 22.5 | 13.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 21.5 | 14.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 33.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 21.5 | 18.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 17.5 | 23.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 15.5 | 44.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 18.5 | 44.0 | +25.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 24.5 | 0.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare Joe Mixon props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Mixon's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Joe Mixon has gone 4-6 over/under on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. He's averaging 21.4 yards against a typical 20.0 line, creating a modest +1.4 differential that masks the under's profitability.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Mixon Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Joe Mixon's receiving yards. The under has produced a 14.6% ROI while overs have lost 23.6%. His current four-game under streak and Houston's offensive philosophy limiting his pass-catching role create sustainable value betting unders.
What's Joe Mixon's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Joe Mixon is averaging 21.4 receiving yards over his last 10 games, just 1.4 yards above the typical 20.0 line. This modest differential disguises the under's profitability, as the distribution heavily favors lower totals despite the slightly elevated average.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joe Mixon receiving yards unders when Houston is favored or in competitive games. His receiving usage drops significantly in positive game scripts where the Texans can rely on their rushing attack rather than desperation passing situations.