Joe Burrow's rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with just 34.8% overs across 23 games since September 2023. Despite averaging 11.43 yards against a typical 9.8 line, the under delivers +24.5% ROI versus -33.6% for overs. The data strongly favors betting under on Burrow's rushing totals.
Expert Analysis
Burrow's rushing profile reveals a quarterback whose mobility is consistently overestimated by oddsmakers. The 8-15 over/under record represents more than small sample noise—it reflects the fundamental nature of Cincinnati's offensive philosophy and Burrow's pocket-passing tendencies. While his 11.43-yard average suggests modest scrambling ability, the distribution heavily skews toward lower totals, with books apparently pricing in explosive rushing games that rarely materialize. The Bengals' pass-heavy approach under Zac Taylor minimizes designed quarterback runs, leaving Burrow's rushing production dependent on broken plays and scrambles. His recent ACL recovery may have further reduced his willingness to extend plays with his legs, though the trend predates his injury. The 4-game under streak and historical 4-game maximum under run suggest this isn't random variance but systematic mispricing. Burrow's rushing yards props appear inflated by his reputation and occasional highlight-reel scrambles rather than his actual game-to-game production patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 65.2% under rate and positive ROI indicate consistent market mispricing of Burrow's rushing ability. Target this prop when lines exceed 10 yards, particularly in games where Cincinnati projects to control pace or face strong pass rushes that could limit scrambling opportunities. The primary risk is a designed quarterback run package or garbage-time scrambles inflating his total.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 10.5 | -1.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 25.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 19.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 9.5 | -2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 28.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 10.5 | -3.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 8.5 | 55.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 9.5 | 1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 10.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Burrow's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Joe Burrow has gone under his rushing yards prop in 15 of 23 games (65.2%) since September 2023, producing an 8-15 over/under record. This represents a significant market inefficiency favoring under bettors consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Burrow Rushing Yards all games?
Bet under on Joe Burrow's rushing yards props. The 65.2% under rate and +24.5% ROI demonstrate clear value, while over bets show -33.6% ROI. This trend reflects systematic overpricing of his mobility.
What's Joe Burrow's average Rushing Yards all games?
Burrow averages 11.43 rushing yards per game against typical lines around 9.8 yards, creating a +1.6 differential. However, this modest average masks a distribution heavily weighted toward lower totals, explaining the strong under performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Burrow rushing unders when lines exceed 10 yards, especially in games where Cincinnati projects to control pace or faces strong pass rushes. Avoid in potential shootouts where scrambling becomes more likely.