J.K. Dobbins has posted a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record on rushing yards props over his last 10 games, but the underlying numbers reveal concerning efficiency issues. His 58.9 yards per game average falls 4.2 yards short of typical betting lines around 63.1 yards, creating slight value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The even 50% over rate masks Dobbins's fundamental struggle to meet market expectations consistently. His 58.9 yards per game average represents a meaningful 6.7% shortfall against the 63.1 yard baseline, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his current production level. This differential persists despite the Chargers' generally competitive game scripts, indicating the issue stems from Dobbins's individual performance rather than situational factors. The lack of available split data prevents deeper context analysis, but the consistent underperformance relative to lines suggests either declining efficiency or a role that's more limited than markets recognize. Most concerning is the absence of any clear pattern in his over/under streaks, with both reaching just two games maximum. This inconsistency, combined with the negative average differential, points to a player whose ceiling has been capped while his floor remains unstable. The -4.5% ROI on both sides reflects the vig eating into returns, but the under side benefits from backing the trend of actual performance lagging expectations. Without split data to identify favorable spots, bettors must rely on the raw production gap between Dobbins's output and market pricing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Dobbins's 4.2-yard average shortfall against typical lines creates a measurable edge despite the balanced record. The consistent underperformance suggests markets haven't fully adjusted to his current role limitations. Target this when lines sit at 63+ yards, but avoid in obvious smash spots where game script heavily favors rushing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 59.5 | 26.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 62.5 | 63.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 54.5 | 76.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 47.5 | 40.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 54.5 | 56.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 64.5 | 50.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 66.5 | 85.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 75.5 | 57.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 77.5 | 40.0 | -37.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 68.5 | 96.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is J.K. Dobbins's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Dobbins has gone 5-5-0 on rushing yards props over his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. His average of 58.9 yards per game consistently falls short of typical betting lines around 63.1 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on J.K. Dobbins Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Dobbins's rushing yards props. His 58.9 yards per game average runs 4.2 yards below typical market lines, creating value on the under despite the balanced 5-5 record over his last 10 games.
What's J.K. Dobbins's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Dobbins averages 58.9 rushing yards over his last 10 games, falling 4.2 yards short of the typical 63.1-yard line. This 6.7% shortfall suggests markets haven't fully adjusted to his current production level.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dobbins rushing yards unders when lines are set at 63+ yards, where his average shortfall creates the most value. Avoid betting in obvious volume spots where game script heavily favors the Chargers ground game.