Jaylen Warren's receiving yards props show a clear edge toward overs, hitting at 57.6% with a 19-14-0 record across 33 games. The Pittsburgh running back averages 21.3 receiving yards against a typical line of 17.23, creating a +4.1 differential that translates to profitable over betting opportunities.
Expert Analysis
Warren's receiving production consistently exceeds market expectations due to Pittsburgh's offensive structure and his dual-threat capability. The Steelers frequently utilize Warren in passing situations, particularly on third downs and in hurry-up scenarios where his route-running skills create mismatches against linebackers. His 21.3-yard average represents genuine skill rather than variance-driven inflation, as Warren has carved out a consistent role as Pittsburgh's pass-catching back regardless of game script. The +9.9% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable profitability, while the -19.0% under ROI shows the market consistently undervalues his receiving contributions. Warren's versatility allows him to maintain receiving volume even when Najee Harris dominates rushing attempts, creating floor stability that protects over bettors. The recent two-game under streak appears more like natural variance than a fundamental shift, especially considering his longest over streak reached five games. Market inefficiency persists because casual bettors focus on Warren's rushing production while overlooking his receiving consistency, creating continued value on the over side.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Warren's 57.6% over rate and +4.1 average differential create consistent value, though the recent under streak warrants caution. The ideal spots come when the line sits at or below 17 yards, where his 21.3 average provides maximum edge. Primary risk involves potential game scripts where Pittsburgh builds large leads early, reducing Warren's passing game involvement.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 21.5 | 19.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 18.5 | 41.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 19.5 | 44.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 20.5 | 3.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 25.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 16.5 | 55.0 | +38.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 14.5 | 19.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 13.5 | 27.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 12.5 | 29.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 13.5 | 13.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 12.5 | 15.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 11.5 | 11.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 15.5 | -4.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 9.5 | 19.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jaylen Warren's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Warren's receiving yards props show a 19-14-0 record (57.6% overs) across 33 games from September 2023 through January 2025. This represents solid over performance with a +9.9% ROI, while under bets produced a -19.0% return on investment.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards all games?
Lean toward betting over on Warren's receiving yards props. His 57.6% over rate and +4.1 average differential above typical lines create consistent value. However, exercise caution after his recent two-game under streak and avoid when lines exceed 20 yards.
What's Jaylen Warren's average Receiving Yards all games?
Warren averages 21.3 receiving yards per game against a typical line of 17.23 yards. This +4.1 differential represents significant value for over bettors, as he consistently exceeds market expectations by nearly 24% on average performance.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Warren receiving yards overs when lines sit at 17 yards or below, maximizing the edge from his 21.3 average. Avoid games where Pittsburgh projects to lead significantly, as blowout scenarios reduce his passing game involvement and receiving opportunities.