Jayden Daniels has been a brutal over bet, hitting just 40.0% in his last 10 games with a devastating -23.6% ROI. Despite averaging 56.2 rushing yards against a 45.6 line, the under has delivered consistent profits at +14.6% ROI. Strong lean under.
Expert Analysis
The Jayden Daniels rushing yards market presents a fascinating case study in why raw averages can mislead bettors. While Daniels averages an impressive 56.2 rushing yards per game—10.6 yards above his typical line of 45.6—the over has been a profit killer at -23.6% ROI. This disconnect reveals the harsh reality of prop betting: a few explosive games can inflate averages while the majority of outcomes fall short. Daniels's current four-game under streak suggests books have adjusted lines upward to account for his rushing ability, but game scripts and defensive adjustments are limiting his ground production more consistently than his season-long average indicates. The rookie quarterback's rushing output appears increasingly volatile and matchup-dependent, making the inflated lines particularly vulnerable. Washington's evolving offensive identity and Daniels's development as a pocket passer may be reducing designed runs, creating a systematic edge for under bettors who recognize this transition.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI combined with four straight unders suggests books are overvaluing Daniels's rushing floor based on early-season explosiveness. Target unders when lines exceed 50 yards, especially against disciplined defenses that can contain scrambling quarterbacks. Main risk is a return to designed quarterback runs if Washington falls behind early.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 55.5 | 48.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 55.5 | 51.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 51.5 | 36.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 46.5 | 27.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 48.5 | 127.0 | +78.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 39.5 | 81.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 41.5 | 66.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 38.5 | 34.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 37.5 | 74.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 41.5 | 18.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jayden Daniels's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Daniels has gone 4-6-0 over/under on rushing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40.0% of the time. This poor over rate has resulted in a brutal -23.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jayden Daniels Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Daniels rushing yards. The under has delivered a solid +14.6% ROI over 10 games, and he's currently on a four-game under streak, suggesting books haven't properly adjusted their lines downward.
What's Jayden Daniels's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Daniels averages 56.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games against an average line of 45.6 yards. While this +10.6 differential looks promising for overs, the actual betting results strongly favor unders at +14.6% ROI.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniels rushing unders when lines exceed 50 yards, particularly against disciplined defenses. His four-game under streak and negative over ROI suggest books are overvaluing his rushing floor based on explosive early-season performances.