Jayden Daniels has been a consistent over performer on passing yards props, hitting the over in 70% of his last 10 games with a +33.6% ROI. The rookie quarterback is averaging 224.3 yards against a 223.1 average line, showing remarkable consistency for a first-year player. This trend merits strong consideration on future overs.
Expert Analysis
Daniels has established himself as one of the most reliable over plays in the NFL, converting passing yards overs at a 70% clip over his last 10 games. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the tight margin between his average output (224.3 yards) and the typical line (223.1), suggesting oddsmakers are still catching up to his true passing volume. The rookie's consistency is striking for a first-year quarterback, as he's avoided the typical volatility that plagues young signal-callers. His current three-game over streak demonstrates momentum, while his longest under streak was just one game, indicating strong floor protection. The +33.6% ROI on overs versus -42.7% on unders creates a significant edge that's difficult to ignore. However, rookie quarterbacks can be unpredictable, and Washington's game scripts could shift as the season progresses. The sample size, while meaningful, represents just 10 games of NFL data. Still, Daniels has shown the arm talent and volume to sustain this passing production, particularly as he continues developing chemistry with his receiving corps and Washington remains competitive in games.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 70% over rate combined with positive expected value makes Daniels passing yards overs an attractive proposition. His consistency as a rookie is impressive, and the tight differential between his average and typical lines suggests continued value. The main risk is rookie volatility and potential game script changes, but his three-game over streak and minimal under streaks provide confidence in the trend's sustainability.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 221.5 | 255.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 237.5 | 299.0 | +61.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 235.5 | 268.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 220.5 | 38.0 | -182.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 221.5 | 227.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 213.5 | 258.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 215.5 | 226.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 214.5 | 206.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 224.5 | 275.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 226.5 | 191.0 | -35.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jayden Daniels's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jayden Daniels has gone over his passing yards prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% over rate) with a 7-3-0 record. He's averaging 224.3 passing yards against an average line of 223.1, generating a +33.6% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jayden Daniels Passing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Daniels passing yards props. The 70% over rate and +33.6% ROI create a clear edge, while his consistency as a rookie quarterback is impressive. However, maintain medium confidence due to typical rookie volatility concerns.
What's Jayden Daniels's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Daniels is averaging 224.3 passing yards over his last 10 games, just 1.2 yards above the average line of 223.1. This tight margin suggests oddsmakers are still adjusting to his true passing volume, creating potential value on overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniels passing yards overs when lines are set around his 223.1 average or lower. His three-game over streak and minimal under streaks suggest the trend has momentum, making current form an ideal entry point for over bets.