Jayden Daniels has been a touchdown machine over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 70% clip with a massive +0.6 differential above the typical 1.5 line. This 33.6% ROI represents one of the strongest prop trends for any quarterback this season, making overs the clear play.
Expert Analysis
Daniels's touchdown surge reflects his rapid development as Washington's franchise quarterback and the offense's increasing reliance on his arm in the red zone. The 2.1 average against a 1.5 line suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his elevated production, creating consistent value. His dual-threat ability opens up play-action opportunities and creates easier throwing windows, while Washington's improved offensive line has given him cleaner pockets to operate from. The Commanders have also shifted toward more aggressive playcalling, particularly in scoring situations where Daniels's mobility makes him a dual threat. What makes this trend particularly sustainable is the underlying offensive infrastructure—better protection, improved receiving corps, and a coaching staff that's maximized his skill set. The current one-game under streak is more noise than signal, especially considering his previous five-game over streak demonstrated the ceiling of this trend. Books appear slow to adjust lines upward, maintaining the 1.5 standard even as Daniels consistently exceeds it. The key risk is potential regression to rookie quarterback norms, but his trajectory suggests the opposite—continued growth and refinement of his red zone decision-making.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Daniels's 70% over rate and +0.6 differential represent genuine value that books haven't fully corrected. The trend is backed by legitimate offensive improvements rather than unsustainable variance. Target overs when the line stays at 1.5, especially in games where Washington projects to be competitive and won't abandon the passing attack for clock management.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing TDs Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jayden Daniels's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Daniels has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), averaging 2.1 touchdowns per game against the typical 1.5 line for a +0.6 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jayden Daniels Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the over on Daniels's passing touchdowns. His 70% over rate and +0.6 differential represent strong value, especially when books maintain the standard 1.5 line despite his elevated production.
What's Jayden Daniels's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Daniels averages 2.1 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, which is 0.6 touchdowns above the typical 1.5 line, representing significant value for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Daniels touchdown overs when the line stays at 1.5 and Washington is projected to stay competitive, avoiding blowout scenarios where they might abandon passing for clock management.