Javonte Williams has been a disaster for rushing yards overs, hitting just 30.0% (3-7-0) over his last 10 games while averaging 21.3 yards against a 32.3 line. The -11.0 differential and brutal -42.7% ROI on overs signals a clear systematic underperformance. Lean Under.
Expert Analysis
Williams' rushing yards collapse stems from Denver's offensive identity crisis and his diminished role in the backfield rotation. The 21.3 yard average represents a staggering 34% shortfall from his typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced usage. This isn't variance—it's structural. The Broncos have leaned heavily on their passing attack while limiting Williams to situational carries, often spelling him with other backs in key moments. His longest under streak of five games indicates sustained coaching decisions rather than temporary game flow issues. The concerning element is how consistently he's fallen short, with only three overs in ten attempts showing no signs of positive regression. Denver's offensive line struggles in short-yardage situations have compounded the problem, limiting Williams' ability to break longer runs that typically push props over. The team's frequent trailing game scripts have also reduced his carry volume, as they've been forced into pass-heavy approaches. Most telling is the +33.6% ROI on unders, demonstrating this isn't just about missing overs—it's about Williams consistently failing to reach reasonable rushing totals. Until Denver's offensive philosophy shifts or Williams reclaims a larger share of backfield touches, this trend appears sustainable rather than due for correction.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' systematic underperformance stems from reduced role and Denver's pass-heavy approach, not temporary variance. The -11.0 yard differential is too significant to ignore, especially with unders showing +33.6% ROI. Target games where Denver faces strong defenses or expects negative game scripts. Main risk is a potential coaching change or injury to other backs that could restore Williams' workload.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 9.5 | 29.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 19.5 | 0.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 37.5 | 24.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 31.5 | 15.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 34.5 | 1.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 37.5 | -2.0 | -39.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 59.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 35.5 | 1.0 | -34.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 38.5 | 42.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 44.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Javonte Williams props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Javonte Williams's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone 3-7-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of overs. He's averaged 21.3 rushing yards against lines averaging 32.3 yards, creating an -11.0 yard differential that's cost over bettors significantly.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Javonte Williams Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Williams' rushing yards. His 30.0% over rate and -11.0 yard average shortfall indicate systematic underperformance, not variance. Unders have generated +33.6% ROI while overs lost -42.7%, making the under the clear value play.
What's Javonte Williams's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Williams has averaged just 21.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 32.3 yards. This -11.0 yard differential represents a 34% shortfall, indicating he's consistently falling well short of expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams under props when Denver faces strong run defenses or expects trailing game scripts that force passing. His reduced role in the backfield rotation makes unders most profitable when the Broncos are likely to abandon the ground game early.