Javonte Williams shows a solid 55.6% over rate on reception props across 27 games, hitting overs 15 times while averaging 2.93 receptions against a 2.61 line. The +0.3 differential and positive 6.1% ROI on overs suggests consistent value, making this a lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Williams' reception prop success stems from Denver's evolving offensive identity and his versatile skill set as a pass-catching back. The 2.93 average against a 2.61 line represents meaningful value, particularly when considering that running backs often see increased target shares in competitive games or when trailing. The 55.6% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the positive ROI differential (+6.1% over vs -15.2% under) indicates the market consistently undervalues his receiving usage. Denver's offensive coordinator has increasingly utilized Williams in passing situations, recognizing his reliable hands and route-running ability. The trend shows resilience across different game scripts, suggesting this isn't merely a product of garbage time or specific matchups. However, the recent streak of one under and a historical longest under streak of five games indicates this prop can go cold. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal spots, but the baseline numbers suggest Williams consistently exceeds market expectations in the receiving game. His role as a three-down back who stays on the field in passing situations provides a stable floor for reception opportunities.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 2.93 average meaningfully exceeds the typical 2.61 line, and the 55.6% hit rate combined with positive ROI suggests consistent market inefficiency. The ideal conditions are games where Denver faces competitive opponents or potential negative game scripts that increase passing volume. The main risk is his recent under and the possibility of game scripts heavily favoring the ground game, but his three-down role provides solid floor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Javonte Williams's Receptions prop record all games?
Williams has gone over his receptions prop in 15 of 27 games (55.6%) while staying under 12 times. This 15-12 record shows consistent success above market expectations with solid volume over nearly two full seasons of data.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Javonte Williams Receptions all games?
Bet the over on Williams' receptions. His 2.93 average significantly exceeds typical 2.61 lines, the 55.6% hit rate shows edge, and positive 6.1% ROI indicates the market consistently undervalues his receiving role in Denver's offense.
What's Javonte Williams's average Receptions all games?
Williams averages 2.93 receptions per game against a typical line of 2.61, creating a +0.3 differential. This meaningful gap suggests he consistently exceeds market expectations, particularly valuable given his three-down role and reliable hands.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception overs in competitive games or when Denver faces strong rushing defenses that force more passing. His three-down role provides consistency, but negative game scripts and trailing situations historically boost his target share most effectively.