Jared Goff's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors over his last 10 games, hitting just 40% overs with a 4-6-0 record. The Lions quarterback averages 3.2 rushing yards against a typical 1.3 line, but the under delivers a solid 14.6% ROI. This is a clear lean under situation.
Expert Analysis
Jared Goff's rushing yard props present a compelling under opportunity rooted in both his playing style and Detroit's offensive philosophy. The Lions quarterback has managed just 4 overs in 10 games despite averaging 3.2 yards per contest, which initially seems contradictory until you examine the variance. Goff's rushing attempts are largely situational - scrambles on broken plays, sneaks in short-yardage situations, and occasional designed rollouts. The key insight is that while he occasionally produces modest rushing totals that beat extremely low lines (typically 0.5 to 2.5 yards), the consistency simply isn't there. Detroit's offensive coordinator Ben Johnson designs one of the NFL's most efficient pocket passing attacks, minimizing Goff's need to leave the pocket. When the Lions face pressure or trailing game scripts, they're more likely to utilize quick slants and screens rather than asking their 29-year-old quarterback to extend plays with his legs. The 14.6% ROI on unders reflects this reality - books struggle to set lines low enough to account for Goff's complete games where he records zero or negative rushing yards. The longest under streak of three games suggests this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge based on offensive philosophy and player limitations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Goff's rushing props offer consistent value on the under despite his modest 3.2-yard average, as Detroit's pass-heavy offense limits scrambling opportunities. The 14.6% ROI on unders reflects books consistently overestimating his mobility. Target this trend when facing standard lines between 0.5-2.5 yards, but exercise caution against mobile defenses that might force more scrambles than usual.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | -3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 21.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | -2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Goff has gone 4-6-0 on rushing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of over bets. He's averaged 3.2 rushing yards per game against typical lines around 1.3 yards, creating a +1.9 differential that somehow still favors unders.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under on Goff's rushing yards props. Despite his 3.2-yard average beating most lines, unders have delivered a 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% on overs. Detroit's pocket-passing offense limits his scrambling opportunities consistently.
What's Jared Goff's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Goff averages 3.2 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.3 yards, creating a seemingly favorable +1.9 differential. However, this average is skewed by occasional moderate rushing games while many contests feature zero yards.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff rushing unders when facing standard lines between 0.5-2.5 yards, particularly in favorable game scripts where Detroit can control pace. Avoid when facing mobile defenses or in potential trailing situations that might force more scrambles.