Jared Goff has crushed passing yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting 8-2-0 (80.0%) while averaging 310.2 yards against a 253.6 line—a massive +56.6 differential. This exceptional consistency with a +52.7% ROI makes Goff overs a premium play.
Expert Analysis
Jared Goff's passing yards dominance stems from Detroit's evolved offensive identity and favorable game scripts. The Lions have transformed into a pass-heavy attack when trailing or in competitive games, with Goff consistently exceeding modest market expectations. His 310.2-yard average represents a 22.3% premium over the typical 253.6 line, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Detroit's aerial aggression. The 8-2-0 over record isn't fluky—it reflects systematic factors including increased target share to emerging receivers, improved pocket protection, and Dan Campbell's willingness to air it out in crucial moments. Goff's accuracy and decision-making have peaked during this stretch, minimizing the interceptions that historically derailed his yardage totals. The consistency is remarkable: even his two under games likely came close to the number. However, regression risk exists if Detroit returns to their ground-heavy roots or if opponents successfully pressure Goff into quick, short completions. Weather conditions and blowout scenarios could also threaten this trend, but Goff's current form suggests he'll continue exceeding conservative projections.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Goff's 80% over rate with a +56.6 average differential creates clear value, especially when books haven't fully adjusted to Detroit's pass-heavy evolution. Target overs when Detroit faces competitive opponents or potential shootout scenarios. The main risk is defensive game scripts or weather conditions that force conservative play-calling and limit Goff's volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 272.5 | 313.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 285.5 | 231.0 | -54.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 253.5 | 303.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 250.5 | 336.0 | +85.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 258.5 | 494.0 | +235.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 254.5 | 283.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 246.5 | 221.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 252.5 | 269.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 230.5 | 412.0 | +181.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 231.5 | 240.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jared Goff props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jared Goff has gone over his passing yards prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80.0% rate) with just 2 unders. His longest over streak reached 4 games, while his longest under streak was only 1 game, showing remarkable consistency hitting the over.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Passing Yards last 10 games?
Bet the OVER on Jared Goff passing yards props. His 80% over rate with a +56.6 average differential above the line creates clear value. Focus on competitive games where Detroit will need to throw, avoiding potential blowouts or severe weather conditions.
What's Jared Goff's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Jared Goff is averaging 310.2 passing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 253.6 yards. This +56.6 differential represents a 22.3% premium, indicating he's consistently exceeding market expectations by a significant margin.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jared Goff passing yards overs in competitive games or potential shootouts where Detroit will need sustained offensive output. Avoid games with severe weather, significant favorites where Detroit might run clock, or divisional matchups that historically trend under.