Jared Goff's passing touchdown props offer solid over value with a 56.8% hit rate (21-16 record) and positive 8.3% ROI. His 1.89 average consistently exceeds typical lines around 1.55, creating a sustainable +0.34 edge. Lean over on Goff touchdown props.
Expert Analysis
Jared Goff's passing touchdown production reveals a quarterback operating in an offense perfectly suited to his skill set. The 1.89 average against 1.55 lines represents more than statistical noise—it reflects Detroit's commitment to aggressive red zone passing under Ben Johnson's system. The Lions have transformed from a ground-heavy attack to a balanced offense that trusts Goff in scoring situations, particularly with weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta creating mismatches. The 8.3% ROI on overs suggests the market consistently undervalues Goff's touchdown ceiling, likely anchored to his pre-Detroit struggles. However, the recent two-game under streak and -17.4% under ROI indicate this isn't a blind betting situation. Goff's touchdown production correlates heavily with game script and opponent strength—he thrives when Detroit plays from ahead or in competitive games but struggles in blowout losses where garbage time doesn't materialize. The 37-game sample provides confidence in the trend's legitimacy, though regression toward league-average touchdown rates remains possible as defenses adjust to Detroit's red zone tendencies.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Goff's consistent outperformance of touchdown lines stems from Detroit's evolved offensive identity and his improved red zone decision-making. Target overs when Detroit faces average-to-poor defenses or in games with competitive spreads where multiple scoring drives are likely. Main risk is negative game script against elite defenses where Detroit abandons passing in the red zone.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Goff's passing touchdown props show a 21-16 over/under record (56.8% overs) across 37 games. His consistent outperformance of lines has generated an 8.3% ROI on over bets, demonstrating sustainable value in this market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Passing TDs all games?
Bet over on Goff's passing touchdown props, particularly when Detroit faces average defenses or in competitive games. His 1.89 average consistently exceeds typical 1.55 lines, though avoid negative game scripts against elite defenses.
What's Jared Goff's average Passing TDs all games?
Goff averages 1.89 passing touchdowns per game compared to typical lines around 1.55, creating a +0.34 edge. This differential reflects Detroit's red zone aggression and Goff's improved efficiency in scoring situations under the current offensive system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff touchdown overs in competitive games against average-to-weak defenses when Detroit projects for positive game script. Avoid when the Lions are heavy underdogs to elite defenses, as negative game flow limits red zone passing opportunities.