Jameson Williams has hit the over on his receptions prop just 47.1% of the time in conference games with a brutal -10.2% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 3.35 receptions against a 3.26 line, the slight edge hasn't translated to consistent profit. Lean Under based on the poor over performance.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a clear picture of a prop that consistently disappoints over bettors despite surface-level appeal. Williams averages 3.35 receptions in conference games, creating a deceptive +0.1 edge over the typical 3.26 line that masks deeper issues. The 47.1% over rate combined with a devastating -10.2% ROI on overs suggests the market has efficiently priced in his ceiling while underestimating his floor volatility. Conference games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative game scripts, factors that particularly impact a deep threat like Williams whose route tree can be limited in methodical drives. The Lions' offensive identity revolves around establishing the run and utilizing multiple receiving threats, making Williams more game-script dependent than volume-driven slot receivers. His boom-or-bust nature means he can easily post 1-2 catch games when Detroit controls the clock or when opposing defenses successfully bracket him. The current streak of one under suggests recent regression toward his conference game mean, and the historical data indicates this trend has persistence rather than being due for positive regression.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -10.2% ROI on overs in conference games reveals a systematic market inefficiency favoring the under despite the slight average edge. Williams' volatility in structured conference matchups creates more opportunities for low-catch games than explosive performances. Target this when Detroit faces strong pass defenses or in potential grind-it-out divisional matchups where game script limits passing volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receptions prop record conference games?
Williams has gone over his receptions prop in just 8 of 17 conference games (47.1%) with an 8-9-0 over/under record. The poor 47.1% hit rate combined with negative ROI makes overs historically unprofitable in conference matchups.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receptions conference games?
Bet the under on Williams' receptions in conference games. The data shows a clear edge with +1.1% ROI on unders versus -10.2% on overs, indicating the market consistently overvalues his reception floor in these structured matchups.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receptions conference games?
Williams averages 3.35 receptions in conference games against a typical line of 3.26, creating a small +0.1 edge. However, this slight average advantage masks significant volatility that favors under bettors due to his boom-bust nature.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams receptions unders in conference games when Detroit faces strong pass defenses or in divisional matchups with potential for clock-control game scripts. His volatility creates the most value in structured, defensive-minded conference games.